Diving into the 2025 draft, some notable picks showcased the intriguing dynamics of player rating and actual selection. Our discourse today will focus on a number of players who, rather generously, saw their draft positions slide, opening up opportunities for fantastic value pick-ups. For instance, in the 2024 draft, prospects Jared Verse and Cooper DeJean, ranked no. 10 and no. 24 on the big board respectively, found themselves grabbed at no. 19 by the Rams and no. 40 by the Eagles, offering both teams what appears to have been a successful gamble based on their rookie campaigns.
One name that will resonate with this year’s draft is Shedeur Sanders, whose tumble down the board left many gasping. Nevertheless, he was not the only piece of top-50 talent that teams acquired at later than anticipated spots. Our outlook here is on the positivity, the extra worth the new franchises receive based on the difference between a player’s ranking on The Athletic’s consensus rating and their actual draft spot.
Perhaps the most surprising selection was cornerback Azareye’h Thomas from Florida State by the New York Jets with a positive value of 31. Despite a solid secondary, the Jets emerged with 20-year-old Thomas who embodies Head Coach Aaron Glenn’s style – resilient, tough, and aggressively physical. Thomas, a strong press-coverage cornerback, fell due to queries around his speed and ball-handling capability, but the Jets were more than happy to pick this second-round talent at 73, predicting a long-term starting cornerback.
The Buffalo Bills, aiming to enhance their defense throughout the offseason, selected edge defender Landon Jackson from Arkansas, ranking a solid +31 in the value metric. The Bills’ five consecutive defense-oriented picks might have shocked some, but the ‘Bills Mafia’ will appreciate the 6-ft-6, 264-pounder’s potential. Jackson, who is expected to make a strong immediate impact, said, ‘I am excited about my role. The team has me playing true defensive end, from 5-technique to wide-9.’ The Bills have found a firm option behind starters Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, despite his first-round potential.
Arizona Cardinals went for cornerback Will Johnson from Michigan with a +33 value. Initially ranked among the top-five in Dane Brugler’s early 2025 mock drafts, Johnson, at 6-ft-2, 202 pounds, fits the mold of a blueprint corner. The Cardinals embraced Johnson, who faced concerns about pace, commitment, and an uneven 2024 season, abruptly ended by injuries. A spot in the starting lineup in week one seems to be in the offing for him.
The Baltimore Ravens drafted Edge Mike Green from Marshall, making it a +45 steal. The field problems surrounding Green raised eyebrows but his on-field prowess elevates the Ravens’ mediocre pass-rush squad. The Ravens took a gamble with pick 59, drafting Green, a potential first-round talent, rosing controversy but strengthening their team.
The biggest plummet was that of Shedeur Sanders, son of Deion Sanders, landing at the Browns with a positive value of an astonishing +112. This slide has sparked many theories and conversations, making Shedeur one of the draft’s talk points. Notably, the baffling decision ignited a memorable reaction from Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN’s renowned draft analyst.
Mel Kiper Jr.’s passionate response to the unexpected sequence of events ended up in a 3-minute monologue during ESPN’s draft coverage. The discourse revolved around Kiper’s frustration about perceived shortcomings in NFL’s quarterback evaluation over the past 50 years. Despite counter-arguments suggesting the measurement isn’t entirely misplaced, given first-round quarterbacks often becoming class leaders, Kiper’s fiery remarks made for cracker viewing.
The conversation reaches back to the NFL Draft’s history as a televised event, with Kiper being the longest-serving draft analyst, having been with ESPN since 1984. With a track record of accurate predictions, including his rare nod for Josh Allen as the top player in 2018, Kiper’s recent 2025 mock, with 10 correct first-round picks, stands testament to his analysis prowess. Yet, his prediction for Sanders staggered many, as he pegged Sanders as the top QB and the no. 5 overall pick which didn’t eventuate.
The debate around Sanders’ descent ignited a secondary debate around Kiper’s heated interactions on the ESPN broadcast. Viewers and fellow media experts from The Athletic raised questions if this series of events had finally broken the long-standing analyst. Such doubts gained traction after Kiper’s emotional outcry against the Browns’ decision to opt for Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel over Sanders branding the move as ‘Disgusting!’.
It seems fair to suggest that Sanders’ surprise regression dwarfed all other events of the 2025 draft, vying for the spotlight with Kiper’s animated reactions. As Kiper’s reputation came into scrutiny, another respected figure in football voiced his take on evaluating quarterbacks – Bruce Arians, Super Bowl champion and former coach of Cardinals and Buccaneers.
Arians shared an anecdote about when he knew that quarterback Andrew Luck had the potential to succeed. He spoke about a time when he asked Luck to illustrate a play from the day’s practice. During the exercise, he questioned Luck’s interpretation, to which Luck confidently asserted that he was spot on. Arians concluded that the quarterback’s ability to handle stress and failure is the ultimate predictor of their success in the NFL.
Arians explained that Luck’s ‘stick-with-it’ attitude during the challenging circumstance is what separates successful quarterbacks from the rest. Through this narrative, he emphasized his belief in the principle that the key to an NFL player’s success, especially for quarterbacks, is essentially their ability to bounce back from failure.
This insight from Arians offered a counterpoint to Mel Kiper Jr.’s vehement criticism of NFL’s QB scouting. It also gave us a glimpse into the internal dynamics at play when it comes to NFL drafting, laying the groundwork for fascinating conversations about player valuations and strategic decisions.
To conclude, the draft offered a theatre of both thrilling surprises and controversies, especially around player ratings and draft positions. The spectacle continues to fuel heated discussions among fans, experts, and within the organizational hierarchies of the NFL, providing yet another riveting chapter in the narrative of the sport.