J.D. Vance Treading Water in a Sea of Unpopularity, Reminiscent of Kamala Harris’ Tenure
J.D. Vance, the Vice President of the United States, seems to be sinking in the ship of public opinion already. Polling aggregator RealClearPolling reveals a rather grim scenario for him. It alleges Vance’s favorable-unfavorable rating to be already below the waterline, signaling dissatisfaction among the electorate. Unexpectedly, it recalls Kamala Harris’s tenure, which was marked by widespread public criticism and questions about her competence and political savvy.
Take one view through the statistical lens of Real Clear Politics, and it becomes clear that Harris’s favorability rarely succeeded in crossing the 50% mark. For the minor part of five months of holding office, she managed to register a higher favorability than unfavorability. This doesn’t exactly leave a memorable mark, making Vance’s mediocre performance seem less shocking. In fact, his favorability is demonstrably worse than Harris’s at the two-month cadence.
The data doesn’t stop at shocking. Vance’s favorable-unfavorable rating stands at a pitiful 41.7 percent-44.8 percent, a disgracefully lower net favorable rating than even Donald Trump’s. Historically, Vice Presidents are not traditionally public sentiment heavyweights, however, they usually are met with a tad more public goodwill at the commencement of their term. Seems like Vance left his goodwill charm at home.
Drawing a comparison from historical polling data, uncertainty or lack of knowledge was dominant among voters in the initial years of Vice Presidential tenures. One can take the examples of Dan Quayle and Al Gore. Still, Al Gore managed to kickstart his tenure fairly robustly with noticeably higher favorable-unfavorable ratings. Even Quayle, labeled often as an intellectual lightweight, began his term underwater and failed to pose any significant improvements.
Pertaining to the present situation, Quayle and Pence fought their own battles against poll challenges. They both faced presidential primaries against former running mates or their offspring, muddling up their image as the presumed successors. Interestingly, Trump has signaled an intention to endorse a family member in the upcoming 2028 race, and this could land Vance in the same muddy waters.
Vance can put on a brave face and shrug off the prospect of a Trump family member being propped up against him, but this will inevitably land a significant blow to his standing. If Trump’s endorsement slips out of his grasp, his last survival strategy in the presidential primary would be to boast spectacular poll numbers that simply cannot be denied. However, even in the face of denial, Vance is playing from a position of weakness.
Indeed, skepticism surrounds the entire persona of Vance. He has overshadowed his political discourse with pettiness, pedantry, and petulance. While he may wish to depict himself as a solution bearer to the multitude of problems in the current political system, starting off from such a placid position is bound to bring heavier challenges.
Historically speaking, even Kamala Harris was unable to shake off the negativity that the Trump administration had heaped on her. The onus of her damage was amplified by Biden’s evidently compromised communication skills and his inability to aptly manage the turmoil of inflation during his time. Such circumstances hint at a possible repetition of history for Vance, setting a troublesome precedent.
Beneath the surface, Vance’s early weakness stirs up several concerns. His initial poll numbers are not just failing to impress but actually manage to underperform compared to Harris’s record. Will his demagogic approach be effective when he cannot pin all blame on the incumbents and has to deliver on his grand promises?
Moving forward, one can project that Vance’s suspected ’28 campaign will carry a heavy load of baggage from his public sector endeavors. His baggage lacks the balance of any successful exploits from the private sector too. Quite the complicated start for someone aspiring to resonate with the electorate.
The concern doesn’t remain limited to Vance’s political career. It extends towards broader implications on the very fabric of American politics. The persisting dread is that Trump’s reign has left a stain so long-lasting on our politics that obnoxious dishonesty and disparagement will continue to gain strength, long after he has exited the stage.
However, if the public response to Vance’s Trump imitation is anything to go by, this fear might be overestimated. Far from replicating Trump’s appeal, Vance seems to be fairing worse popularity-wise. Unpopularity seems to be the common thread linking the present Vice President to the past President, who by the day is becoming more unpopular within the nation.