Surge in Stolen Bases: Weekly Analysis of Baseball Fantasy Trends

As we see an upward trend in stolen bases across the baseball leagues, each Wednesday I will be assisting you in monitoring crucial trends in this area to enable you to enrich your fantasy team with additional speed. We know that a stolen base is as dependent on the competencies of the rival pitcher and catcher as it is on the sprinter themselves. Identifying which teams and pitchers are the main target of more frequent base thefts can guide you in choosing individuals likely to steal a few more bases in the week ahead. Last week, our focus was on José Caballero slowly securing more playtime with the mighty Yankees. He has since made it to the start line for three more consecutive games, while Anthony Volpe earned some rest.

Now we have two fresh left-handed starting players to consider. Before we dive deep into this week’s trends, let’s review the stolen base leaderboard for the past seven days. Francisco Lindor and Josh Lowe finally seem to be in good health, though we’ll delve into that later. Since moving positions, first to third in the Diamondbacks’ order, Corbin Carroll has impressively accrued six stolen bases in a mere 13 games. Shifting our gaze, let’s now look at the overall number of stolen bases this season.

Chandler Simpson has been on an absolutely unstoppable running spree. Since he was called back to the Rays team on June 24th, the determined athlete has tried to achieve 27 base steals. This is a leading statistic, as no other player has aimed to steal more than 18 times. Moving forward, let’s consider individuals we initially hoped would show greater aggression or skill on the base paths in the latter half of the season.

Several players touted for their base-stealing prowess, including Luke Keaschall, Matt McLain, and Fernando Tatis Jr., have been wrestling with improving their efficiency levels. It appears that the days of Ronald Acuña Jr. as a dexterous swift runner may have come to an end. Shifting gears now, we’ll study the most noteworthy trends in base stealing in baseball over the previous week.

An interesting occurrence took place this week with the Cardinals. They saw a whopping 17 stolen bases attempted against them. Of these, 13 were successful over a span of just six games. The primary offenders here were Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore, both of whom had a direct role in this increase.

During Pallante’s kick-off game of the week, the opposition tried their luck at stealing bases four times. Of these, three were successful. Interestingly, he managed to catch one runner mid-course, marking his first successful pick-off this season, despite being ranked in the top-30 for pick-off attempts. Pallante is recognized for his relatively slow action to the plate, providing runners with more leeway than most pitchers in the league. This makes him an attractive target for these speedy athletes.

But Matthew Liberatore’s case presents a different complexion. In less than five innings in his sole start from last week, four bases were nabbed from him. This takes his season tally of lost bases to 16, placing him fifth amongst all left-handed pitchers. The general theory is that left-handed pitchers have a better hold on runners. However, Liberatore seems to be defying this theory as he has been guilty of allowing the longest leads and jumps amongst his left-handed peers. It’s reasonable to expect this trend to continue.

Six weeks after the All-Star break, we can observe fresh base-stealing patterns arising amongst individual players. Factors such as fatigue, team dynamics, low-grade injuries, or dips in offensive performance can inhibit players from attempting base steals. Oneil Cruz, who has consistently ranked at the top of the base-stealing standings this season, has only endeavored to attempt this five times in the second half. His dwindling on-base percentage since the break, a mere .242, is a significant reason for this.

Moreover, in comparing his effort from his first year as a center fielder to his previous stint as a shortstop, it appears there is a noticeable increase in exertion. This could be contributing to his decreased attempts at stealing bases. In contrast, Jazz Chisholm Jr. seems to have risen from his slump, leading all players with 12 steals in the second half. During the first half, he was slowed down by an oblique injury, from which he seemed to have recovered remarkably quickly. With his health back on track, his inclination to run appears to have increased.

The same can be said for Josh Lowe and Francisco Lindor, who, with 12 and 11 attempts respectively, are amongst the leaders in attempted base steals. Lowe has experienced several occurrences of an oblique injury this season, which may have resurfaced, while Lindor, who fractured his toe in early June, seems to finally be regaining form.

However, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s stealing performance has been underwhelming as his offensive production has significantly declined. His conversion rate in the second half has slumped to 4-for-7 after delivering a strong 27-for-31 in the first half. This decline could be attributed to an overzealous approach to regain the magic he displayed at the beginning of the season.