Comically enough, on June 16, 2015, the New York Daily News released a headline that screamed ‘CLOWN RUNS FOR PREZ’. This was the day Donald Trump declared his candidacy for the presidency. Both the Daily News and countless other established media houses consistently bombarded Trump, the business tycoon, with harsh criticism and relentless mockery. These outlets kept reiterating that Trump had zero chances of becoming the president.
It’s worth noting some of the most glaringly inaccurate forecasts concerning Trump’s presidential campaign. Each one ostensibly surer than the last that Trump’s chance at the presidency was nothing more than a pipe dream. Among the worst predictions was the number 10 : ‘Thank you, Donald Trump, for making my last six weeks the best six weeks’. The clear insinuation was that Trump’s endeavor was nothing more than self-humiliation.
It was frustratingly clear that this bias run fiercely against the Trump Campaign as the media peddled the narrative of a Russian-interference in the election, further eroding their credibility. Even when Trump led polls against the then-favorite candidate Jeb Bush, the media kept downplaying his candidacy and denied any real possibility of his success.
New York media put forth another baffling prediction, questioning if Trump himself even believed in his chances for presidency. Adding a pile to the heap, it even published a piece ostentatiously titled, ‘Donald Trump is going to lose because he’s crazy.’ Despite the mainstream media’s attempts and constant barrages, none could foresee what was to come.
The narrative of constant denial continued with The Atlantic confidently declaring in July 2015 that not only was Trump not going to be the 45th president of the United States, but he would never manage to win a presidential nomination at all. The magazine went as far as to appraise Trump’s chances as ‘exactly zero’. How incredibly short-sighted that must seem in hindsight.
Bloomberg jumped on the denial bandwagon back in June 2015, critiquing Trump for what they described as ‘garish and ridiculous’ traits. It further speculated whether these traits would impact his chances. The answer, according to them, was a staunch negation.
Meanwhile, pollster Harry Enten emphatically concluded that Trump was more likely to make a surprise appearance in another ‘Home Alone’ sequel or play in NBA Finals, than secure the Republican nomination. Regardless of this prediction, Trump effortlessly seized the nomination and later, the presidency.
Amusingly, amidst the sea of consistent denials about Trump’s chances and endless criticisms that he faced, the attention split for a moment to focus on another prominent figure, Joe Biden. It was illustrious pundit, Bill Kristol’s belief that the best chance for Biden to pose any significant competition was between the October 13th Democratic debate and Hillary Clinton’s October 22nd Benghazi testimony. However, as we would see, Biden never ended up running at all.
The media’s hubristic prediction continued with an audacious claim by a reporter who pledged to consume a bag of rusty nails if Trump was successful. The reporter was so sure of himself that he pledged this not only if Trump won the Republican nomination, but even if he simply managed to defeat likely nominee Hillary Clinton in autumn.
Joining the chorus of denials, another prediction claimed Trump knew deep-down that he would lose the election. This further insinuated that Trump gave up a comfortable lifestyle simply to face an inevitable defeat in the run for presidency.
Number one in the list of failed prophecies came from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s forecast declared with absolute certainty that Trump had no chance of winning the Republican nomination. Silver became a revered figure in the prediction business due to his correct call on the 2008 election. Even his model, going into the election day, gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning.
Given the widespread negative sentiment and dismissive attitudes towards Trump, it feels surreal to reflect on this past decade. The man denoted as a ‘clown’ by the New York Daily News has been at the core of a seismic shift in the political landscape. And the media pundits who continue to misjudge and misinterpret the political climate are the real ones caught in the comedic twist of fate.
The actions and rhetoric of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and their positions on various issues stand out in stark contrast to Trump’s. Their stances often take a back seat to political posturing, illustrating a lack of effectiveness and strategic thought. This is recurrently evident when they’re compared with Trump’s clear-sighted vision and unwavering commitment towards his stated objectives.
Biden, who was supposed to throw his hat in the ring, chose to sit out the race, leaving much to be desired from leadership of the supposed political elites. On number 4 on the list of worst predictions, Biden’s chance to run, and more importantly to win, was continually hyped. Yet, he did nothing but disappoint those who were hoping for a sturdy challenge against Trump.
In the light of such false and over-ambitious predictions, one can’t help but be amazed at the media’s repetitive fallacies and blunders. Perhaps this sheds light into why there’s a widespread distrust and skeptical sentiment regarding mainstream media. Trump’s underestimated victory challenged this complacency and in its wake left a trail of red-faced pundits forced to eat their words.