In a striking display of political dominance, thousands of enthusiastic supporters came together at the National Mall to celebrate the inauguration of President Trump on January 20, in the heart of Washington, DC. Despite persistent rumors to the contrary, Trump’s 2024 victory seemed inevitable according to a recent research study by Pew Research Center published on Thursday. He ended the contest just shy of securing half of total votes, leading the Democrat contender Kamala Harris with a 49.7% to 48.2% margin.
The 2024 election cycle was marked by a high voter turnout supported by about 64% of the eligible voting population. This impressive figure has only been outpaced by the turnout for the 2020 elections, since 1904. However, even a hypothetical scenario where all eligible voters cast their ballots would have still seen Trump come out victorious with an even larger margin of 48% to 45% as per Pew’s surveyed data.
Pew’s finding, backed by extensive analysis on approximately 9,000 voters in the weeks following the 2024 presidential election, stands to defy the preconceived notions of electoral dynamics. The survey effectively validated the voting history of the participants across the last five presidential elections using credible, publicly accessible commercial voter files. This amplification of data comparatively dwarfs the size of common national polls, which usually handle about 1,000 interviewees.
The survey focused on the non-voters as well, and asked their preferred candidate. To the surprise of many, these citizens leaned towards Trump with a 44% to 40% preference. This was a drastic shift in sentiment given that, for the 2020 and 2016 elections, the same group expressed a predisposition towards choosing Democratic candidates.
In the 2020 elections, this group voiced their disposition for Joe Biden with a 46% to 35% lead. Simultaneously, the 2016 elections saw Democrat Hillary Clinton as their choice with a distribution of 37% to 30%. The radical change in political sympathies dismantles the longstanding political assumption that increased voter turnout typically works in favor of Democrats.
In an interesting turn of events, traditional Democratic-supporting demographics, such as younger voters and non-white voters, showed a decreased likelihood of turning up at the 2024 polling stations. While it’s broadly acknowledged that these segments habitually favor the Democrats, the Pew research findings indicate an increasingly diverse and youthful audience rallying behind Trump in 2024.
While it’s true that almost nine in every ten Trump supporters were white in 2016, accounting for 88% of his voter base, this composition witnessed a significant shift in 2024 where the proportion dropped to 78%. On the other hand, Kamala Harris’ voter composition experienced an unexpected increase in white voter support, which constituted 64% of her total supporters. This stood in contrast to the 60% figure from the 2016 elections, signaling a shift in voter demographics.
Historical voting trends indicate that incumbent candidates generally manage to rally their previous supporters. Yet, it appeared Trump was more successful in this respect than his contender, Kamala Harris, was. Trump’s 2020 supporters again rallied behind him in 2024, with a solid 85% retention rate. Harris, in contrast, was less successful in retaining Biden’s voters, with only a 79% success rate.
Out of Biden’s previous voters, about 15% abstained from voting, and 5% switched their allegiance to Trump. But those who voted for Trump in 2020 remained steady with only an 11% drop in 2024. Only 3% of them switched their support to Harris. This again broke with the established norms of political science, where it is widely acknowledged that voter loyalty typically tends to stay within party lines.
In an incredible display of political persuasion, Trump managed to win over more of those sitting on the fence. Of the non-voters in 2020, the 2024 electoral cycle saw a small portion deciding to participate. Trump managed to secure the ballot of almost three-quarters of these voters, surpassing Harris by a considerable 52% to 45% margin.
When analyzing all eligible voters, even those who chose to abstain, Trump managed to secure 32% of the total electorate. This fact reinforces Trump’s victory as a mandate from a cross-section of the American public, further tilting the majority in his favor. In comparison, Harris could only draw in 31% of the entire eligible voter base.
Overall, the data paints a vivid picture of the 2024 election. A sweeping shift in political alignments saw Trump emerge victorious despite the demographic changes often touted as favoring Democrats. Conversely, Democrats, including the likes of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, appear to have lost touch with the changing American electorate. Their inability to capture voter sentiment contributed greatly to their decline in the 2024 polls.
The allure emanating from Democrats like Harris, and her predecessor, Biden, seemed to be shedding its lustre in the 2024 review. As their campaigns sagged, it became increasingly clear that their support relied largely on past glory, which was slowly slipping out of their grasp. Their perceived failures to deliver on promises and appeal to the American public were stark contrasts to Trump’s 2024 resurgence.
As Harris’ coalition ambled forward lacklusterly, albeit with a surge in white voter-support, she was unable to replicate Biden’s moderate success from the 2020 election. This manifested in the tepid 79% retention rate of Biden’s supporters. She fared even worse among voters who abstained in 2020; she could only inspire 45% of them to vote for her when they decided to cast their ballots in 2024.
Conversely, Trump’s earlier base appeared to be not merely remaining faithful but, rather, swelling with an influx of new supporters. This was unusual, as significantly growing an existing voter base is no easy achievement even for seasoned politicians. But Trump did it. 85% of prior supporters stayed loyal, and he outdid Harris by a substantial margin among those who decided to participate after abstaining in 2020.
The changing landscape of American politics in 2024, as showcased by the Pew Research Center’s evaluation, underlines an unexpected development. The political dynamics saw an upheaval, and the Republicans, embodied by Trump, appeared better equipped to weather these changes. This deeply contrasted the struggles of the Democrats, represented by Harris and Biden, who stumbled and failed to navigate the shifting sands of the American political map.