Biden’s Support for Harris: A Question in the Making?

President Biden’s seeming praise for Vice President Kamala Harris has been rather surprising in the context of recent developments. Despite the questions of if she could rise to the challenge, the real question is, will she? And importantly, does Mr. Biden, in fact, want her to? As Biden grapples with the decision to possibly not seek re-election, there’s another critical decision he faces: Should he back his own VP, making her the party’s chosen one, or should he allow the party to delve into a brief, fierce competition to be settled shortly by Democratic convention delegates?

These questions have permeated the minds of Democratic politicians and strategists as much as the debate of whether Biden should step down – a topic often viewed through the half-hearted sentiments towards Ms. Harris. Some argue that she’s earned the chance to step up, whereas, others warn against the possibility of her not being able to secure a win in November. An equally pressing matter was recently highlighted with news that Representative Nancy Pelosi is in favor of an open contest, assuming that Biden does not run, new light has been cast on the situation.

The durable friendship between Ms. Pelosi and Ms. Harris didn’t prevent Pelosi from suggesting that a contest would strengthen the vice president. Many Democrats concur with Pelosi’s views, as voiced by former Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who believes the selection process should be open. On the other hand, Democrats like Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis of California, who aligns with Harris, argue that she has already proved her viability as Biden’s running mate.

In the annals of U.S. history, it’s not a given that a president automatically reaffirms his vice president for succession. There’s no lack of precedents – from Harry S. Truman recruiting another candidate instead of endorsing his VP, to Dwight D. Eisenhower taking a week to contemplate the influential contributions (if any) Richard M. Nixon brought to the table as vice president.

It’s worth recalling that Lyndon B. Johnson did not give his support to Hubert Humphrey until just weeks before the general election. Likewise, Ronald Reagan only threw his weight behind George H.W. Bush after the primaries, and Bill Clinton decided to back Al Gore even as the latter attempted to dissociate himself in the wake of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Barack Obama also showed his support for Hillary Clinton, indirectly discouraging Biden from competing. This discouragement has not been forgotten by Biden, and it remains uncertain whether this experience makes him more or less inclined to support his own vice president.

Nevertheless, the current situation is uniquely different, with the primaries over and the convention just around the corner. The party does not aim to wait until the convention to announce its candidate, planning to do so even earlier, triggered by concerns about ballot accessibility in the upcoming Ohio election. This leaves a mere window of opportunity of about 10 days until the convention.

If Biden decides to withdraw from the race, the process of choosing a nominee could be delayed until the convention itself. However, Democratic governors who may pose a challenge to Harris would have a very narrow timeframe to mobilize and gather enough signatures to be considered legitimate contenders.

Insiders close to Biden have stated that if push comes to shove, he would probably back Harris in what would seem like the simplest solution to a chaotic, last-minute shift to a new nominee. Yet, this is not a certainty, and only shines a light on the complex relationship between Biden and Harris. While aides from both camps insist there exists a mutual respect between the two, like most presidents and vice presidents, their relationship is far from intimate.

Past doubts about her electability have reportedly irked Harris, perhaps influencing the recent seemingly positive comments from Biden. Biden has recently been observed to question whether she could indeed pull off a victory, contrary to earlier reservations. Some available polls indicate that contrary to popular belief, Harris holds up as well against Trump as Biden does, and in some cases, she’s polling slightly stronger.

While Harris takes credit for a significant share of Biden’s record, Ms. Etienne suggests that Harris, having worked closely with the president in both the Oval Office and Situation Room for the past four years, would be well-positioned to step up if Biden were to step aside. The question of Harris’s fate within the party threatens to polarize the Democrats along racial lines. While members of the Congressional Black Caucus largely support Biden staying in the race, they simultaneously caution against any attempts to displace Harris.

Certain Democrats predict backlash if the nomination were merely handed to Harris, suggesting a hurried contest for the support of roughly 4,000 delegates would be the first instance in over half a century for a convention to determine a major party nominee irrespective of primary results. This would put the party structure to a test which, some leaders fear, may be unmanageable.

In the final analysis, a member of the Democratic National Committee and former aide to Mr. Gore, Elaine C. Kamarck, put forth the view that the whole discussion may just be academic. According to her, it may simply be too late to stage any type of open contest. So, it seems like powering through this election, for Biden, may be the only feasible path forward.