Council on Criminal Justice Reports a Drop in Homicide Rates in 2025

In the wake of multiple dispatches of ambulances and police to an incident at CrossPointe Community Church in Wayne, Michigan, there has been a distinct focus on crime rates. Shattering the perception of growing criminal activity, the latest report from the Council on Criminal Justice indicates a decrease in crime. This comprehensive analysis documents an encouraging downward trend for violent crime in 2025 as compared to the previous year.

Specifically, homicides across the US have seen a 17% decrease in the first six months of 2025 when contrasted against the same timeframe in 2024. The study assessed data from 42 cities throughout the nation, signifying the continuation of a trend that originated in 2022. Thus, counter to popular beliefs of escalating violence and crime, the reality is quite the opposite.

Furthermore, the report addresses a broader range of serious offences beyond homicides, also showing promising reductions. Gun assaults and carjackings decreased significantly during the same period of time across the reviewed cities. Again, this analysis attests to the ongoing decline in violent crime across the United States.

Among the 30 cities that provided homicide data, the 17% drop in the crime was remarkably uniform. However, five cities bucked the trend with an increase in their homicide rates. Milwaukee, Wisconsin reported a 6% increase, whereas Little Rock, Arkansas experienced a sharp 39% spike.

While the consistent decline in violent crime, particularly homicides, is a source of optimism, the report acknowledges a key Caveat. A notable proportion of the decrease can be attributed to certain cities with a history of high crime rates such as Baltimore and St. Louis. Concerningly, more than half of the reviewed cities still have higher homicide rates than their pre-pandemic levels.

Regardless of these fluctuations, a general decrease in homicide is observable. There were 14% fewer homicides during the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2019. However, the report declares that more investigation is needed before attributing this trend to a particular policy or practice.

In the bigger picture, public fears of crime are continually stoked by misleading narratives and statistics, often propagated by public figures. For example, resistant voices against the abolition of cash bail cite potential risks of released suspects committing severe crimes. However, the reality, as defined by multiple studies, states that doing away with cash bail doesn’t result in a surge of criminal activities.

More data to the same effect is provided by AH Datalytics, a data consulting firm that manages the Real-Time Crime Index. Their tool collates crime data from over 400 law enforcement agencies countrywide. Their findings suggest a 20.3% decrease in homicides from January to May 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.

This corroborates data published by the Major Cities Chiefs Association in May, which showed an approximate 20% fall in homicides in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to the initial three months of 2024. Although it’s challenging to pinpoint a single cause for this decline, Council on Criminal Justice researchers hypothesize that fewer individuals engaging in high-risk situations, such as robberies, might play a role.

Crimes of a severe nature weren’t the only ones to decrease in the first half of 2025, as compared to the same period in 2024. The report, prepared by the Council on Criminal Justice, highlights decreases in motor vehicle theft (25%) and reported gun assaults (21%). Furthermore, robberies, various kinds of burglaries, shoplifting, and both aggravated and sexual assaults have seen a significant reduction.

Nevertheless, not all crime types display an equivalent decline. Drug offenses remained consistent and domestic violence has seen a slight increase – up by an estimated 3%. Carjackings decreased by 24% while larcenies are down by 5%.

Comparisons of crime rates in the first half of 2025 with the pre-pandemic period (first half of 2019) show overall declines in many categories. Specifically, there are 14% fewer homicides, 30% less robberies, and 28% fewer sexual assaults reported.

Despite these positive trends, 60% of surveyed cities report homicide rates that exceed those of 2019. Further, motor vehicle theft, the only crime noted in the report that has increased in the pandemic, is up 25% since the pre-pandemic era. Notably, it has shown signs of decline since hitting a peak in 2023.

Additional analysis by the Council reveals an interesting aspect where the seriousness of violent crime encounters seems to have escalated. While the number of violent incidents have decreased, the ratio of violence resulting in death has climbed considerably.

In the past, specifically in 1994, the probability was 2 homicides for every 1,000 assaults and about 16 for every 1,000 robberies. Contrastingly, the likelihood greatly increased by 2020, with the chances being 7.2 per 1,000 assaults and an alarming 55.8 per 1,000 robberies.