Democrats Pin Hopes on Inept Candidates Once More

The aftermath of the November elections was filled with justifications for why Kamala Harris was unsuccessful. Defenders pointed to her insufficient time to campaign, ties to an unpopular predecessor, and internal divisions within the Democratic Party. These justifications are thoroughly deconstructed in the book ‘Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House.’ The book presents an alternate explanation: Harris failed to persuasively articulate her vision for America or why she was even running. However, let’s face the true heart of the matter. Harris was a simply inept candidate. Her 2020 and 2024 campaigns were disastrous, and despite having every opportunity to seize victory, she fell short, an abject lesson as we look towards 2026 elections.

Recent data exposed by the Pine Tree State Poll, an initiative by the University of New Hampshire, indicates this reality. The numbers might provide some sense of solace to some, but they hardly paint a picture of stability for Senator Susan Collins. While she certainly faces some political vulnerabilities, it is by no stretch of the imagination that her career is about to dissolve. The lack of serious challengers from within her own party confirms this.

If the two announced candidates manage to get their names on the ballot, it’s hard to see their campaigns as anything more than whimsical ventures. Hence, once we make it past the June primaries, it’s likely Collins’ standing with Republicans will improve if she is declared the official nominee. While it’s true that Republicans aren’t entirely satisfied with Collins, it’s important to consider the factors. Most Republicans would likely prefer someone more aligned with the views of former President Trump.

The real problem is, in Maine, there simply isn’t anyone of that ilk who’d be viable in a general election. Hence, she’s unlikely to encounter a serious primary challenger. The question isn’t about Collins’s vulnerability, but whether the Democrats can produce a candidate capable of defeating her in a general election. This remains an unanswered question.

Governor Janet Mills appears to be the Democrats’ core contender, but she’s far from universally endorsed. Her gubernatorial campaigns started with a competitive aura, but eventually, she prevailed over Shawn Moody and ex-Governor Paul LePage. There could be two interpretations of these outcomes. One could argue that they lend credence to her potential as a U.S. Senate candidate.

This line of reasoning could make sense. After all, she’s the only prospect who has run on a statewide level before and emerged victorious twice. She was able to achieve this feat by maintaining a centrist facade, particularly relative to her party, and by hailing from rural western Maine instead of Portland. This skillful political maneuvering suggests she could be a potent contender. However, perhaps we’re not seeing the entire picture.

Did she triumph in those gubernatorial races due to her aptitude or because she faced subpar opponents? Re-nominating LePage in 2022 turned out to be ill-judged move; the public demonstrated a clear lack of interest in his return to office. Moody’s 2018 run saw an inexperienced political candidate. Despite his personal charm and well-known business involvement, he wasn’t politically savvy enough to differentiate himself from LePage and make his own case—a mistake that echoes that of Kamala Harris vis-à-vis Joe Biden in 2024.

While Mills may appear strong on paper, she hasn’t truly encountered formidable opponents in her statewide races. Collins, on the other hand, has wrestled with a succession of credible foes in both primaries and general elections. With all the wasted millions on opponents like Joe Brennan and Sara Gideon, one can surmise that Collins would be the most challenging opponent Mills has ever faced, and unseating an incumbent is no easy feat.

Mills would need to conduct a disciplined campaign while also fundraising like never before. The notion that Collins looks vulnerable at the moment does not necessarily guarantee a victory for Mills. Winning over voters is more intricate than simply capitalizing on an incumbent’s low poll numbers. Voters need to be persuaded not only that an incumbent is unworthy, but that the challenger is superior.

Mills may be the best shot the Democrats have, but that doesn’t guarantee she can actually triumph. Victory isn’t determined solely by an opponent’s poor polling numbers. Even former President Joe Biden’s infamous words, quoting his father, ring true here: judge me by the alternative, not the almighty.

In conclusion, numbers and statistics only paint part of the picture. Candidate aptitude, political experience, and the ability to connect with voters are crucial elements in determining election outcomes. As past performance of both Kamala Harris and Janet Mills has shown, being on paper and effective in practice can be wildly different. After all, electoral politics is not simply about having a vision but about convincingly articulating it to voters.

The irony here is that despite such glaring failures, Democrats continue to pin their hopes on individuals who have demonstrated time and time again their inability to win battles where it matters most. Political acumen appears to fall by the wayside, replaced instead by optimistic projections based on insufficient data and flawed interpretation of past results.

Perhaps, it’s time for both, politicians and political observers, to look beyond the glossy exterior of campaigns and dig deeper. What really makes a candidate suitable for office? Is it their rhetoric, their promises, or is it their track-record of delivering tangible results?

Evidently, the Democrats’ enthusiastic support for Harris and now potentially Mills, seems to indicate a focus on the former. As recent elections have demonstrated, this approach might need a serious rethink, particularly when up against a seasoned politician like Susan Collins.

The common thread between the shortcomings of Harris and potential pitfalls ahead for Mills resides in their inadequate communication of vision and inadequacy to inspire faith among voters. Just as Harris failed in her Presidential campaign, there’s a significant risk that Mills, too, could falter.

Ultimately, the upcoming elections will serve as a litmus test for the Democrat’s choice of candidate. They need to pick a candidate with a clear, compelling vision and the ability to make that vision resonate with voters. Otherwise, they might just be setting up for another disappointing election year.