The political landscape in America is highly dynamic. Through the lens of ‘presidential lean’, it’s clear that the Heartland and Midwest regions have displayed a solid backing for the GOP in recent decades. Despite losing the presidency in 2020, President Donald Trump exhibited remarkable strength in several battleground states. Florida, interestingly, scaled the peak of Democratic support in 2004, but in 2020 showed an evident swerve toward the Republicans, highlighting a steady increase in support for them over two decades.
Our analysis this week continues the examination of each state’s ‘lean’ towards a particular party in the course of the six presidential elections that occurred since 2004. Looking to Louisiana as an example, a roughly 60%-40% vote for the Republican party was observed for a majority of the analyzed elections, evident in 2020 when President Trump won the national popular vote. Nonetheless, in 2008, John McCain replicated this margin in the state, despite a decisive loss at the national level, indicating a heavier lean towards Republicans in comparison to the rest of the country.
The 13 states that were heavily inclined towards the GOP in 2004 include some that have since gradually moved towards the Democrats. A total of 9 out of these 13 states were, in fact, heavily Democratic by 2024. This trend is clearly seen in the Pacific North West, as both Oregon and Washington state which were within a 10% range of the national popular vote in 2004 had shifted 10 points toward the Democrats by 2024. California and Hawaii had respectable performances by George W. Bush, giving some hope to the GOP.
Shifting the lens to western United States, Colorado, and New Mexico initially supported Bush, however, they switched to unsuccessful Democratic nominees in 2016 and 2024. Despite consistently leaning towards the GOP, Democrats have increased their foothold in Nebraska, linked to their inroads in Omaha and Lincoln since 2004. Although large portions of Texas have tilted towards the right in the past two decades, the pinnacle GOP performance remains Bush’s tenure, especially in terms of the raw and relative gains.
Traveling towards the East Coast, states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia had all endorsed Bush with clear margins in 2004. Now, twenty years down the line, Virginia has shifted to the left, while Georgia and North Carolina have become fiercely contested battlegrounds. Even when Kamala Harris suffered defeat in Georgia, the state’s remarkable political journey from being over 10 points to the right of the nation in the early 2000s to within 1 point of national popular votes in 2024 was noteworthy, albeit in a negative light.
The 2008 election revealed two states with strong GOP leanings: Arizona and Alaska. From 2004 to 2008, Arizona’s preference for the Republicans strengthened from 8 points to 16 points above national average. Despite Arizona’s current positioning at 4 points to the right of the nation, its whopping 30-point lead in 2008 paints a clear picture of its GOP preference in past votes. However, it was disappointing that even after a commendable performance, Alaska is still not a significant target for Democrats.
In 2008, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans acted surprisingly in favor of the Republicans. The relocation of a significant part of the city’s Black population probably showcased a sudden upsurge in the GOP lean, doubling from 12 points in 2004 to a striking 26 points in 2008. Romney’s 2012 run resulted in profitable GOP outcomes in Kansas and Utah. Predictably, Romney, the first LDS nominee from a major party, had a strong performance in Utah. While Utah shifted towards Democrats in recent years, their ‘Blutah’ aspirations feel far-fetched.
Interestingly, Kansas, historically a reliably red state, credits its GOP preference to Romney’s strength in its urban regions. One stark example of this is Johnson County, the state’s most populous county. While Trump’s total vote count in the county was 155,631 in 2020, Romney received about 300 more votes back in 2012. This underlines the fact that GOP leanings in Kansas have been receding, despite the state’s steadfast support for Republicans.
Trump’s 2016 presidential run revealed significant GOP support in 20 states, including the Dakotas and the northern Rocky Mountain states. Also included in this group were stretching from Oklahoma to West Virginia, all of which swung to Trump in 2016. Despite the sizable category, Michigan remained the only Toss-up state from the 2020 electoral battles. There was an apparent fluke in Trump’s victory in Michigan in 2016. Its diminished GOP lean in 2020 allowed Joe Biden to take the state, and by 2024, it was leaning left of the national popular vote.
Delaware, traditionally loyal to Biden, could also be seen shifting back to the left. The 2020 election displayed an opposing scenario, where several contested electoral prizes like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada lent foundational support to Trump. Based on these Toss-up states, each shifted to near the national average under differing conditions—pointing to the strength of Trump’s support in those particular states.
Trump’s 2024 election represented the best showing for Republicans in only five states. Bearing the brunt of urban swings in the New York City area, it comes as no surprise that New York and New Jersey landed in this category. The fact that Illinois still leans left, despite scaling back by about 10 points due to Chicago’s Cook County, denotes a critical point in the state’s political trajectory.
Towards the end of the Obama era, Mississippi seemed like a potential Democratic target due to its sizable Black population. However, under the Trump administration, Mississippi’s red lean increased by over 20 points, painting a picture that should make Democrats cautious about their prospects of gaining ground there.
A noteworthy point has been our view on Democrat’s future in Florida over the past few years, which was laid bare in this exercise. Strikingly, Florida was invested in the Democrats in 2004 and yet, stood as the most Republican state in 2024—the exact opposite of most dark blue states. This map aligns with the state-level trends we’ve studied over these two articles.
The blue states account for 232 electoral votes, the red ones boast of 240, while the remaining 63 are up for grabs as Toss-up states. Staring at the electoral map filled with blue, red, and yellow tones over the last few elections, it’s evident there have been significant shifts internally. Despite these dynamics, one can’t evade the reality of highly competitive elections in the current era.
Considering the ebbs and flows of support for Republicans and Democrats across states, one thing becomes clear: the American electorate is in constant flux. The ongoing drama of shifting party loyalties and its impact on our national and state politics will continue to mark America’s political map in years to come.
While some states appear to have shifted their political alliances and others stand their ground, it’s interesting to see the different paths each state’s political lean has taken over the presidential elections since 2004. Nonetheless, with the changing political tide, it seems like the Democrats are increasingly swimming upstream, especially in states that were once considered strongholds.