India’s Record-breaking Rice and Wheat Production Expected in 2025-26

Forecasts by international agencies predict a new peak in India’s rice production in the 2025-26 season, which runs from September 2025 to August 2026. The same forecasts also suggest a global increase in grain production with a projected output reaching a remarkable 2,375 million tonnes. India’s wheat crop for this same season is facing similar expectations as estimates also suggest a potential record high yield. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s predictions align with these, projecting a 1% increase in rice output from the previous year, raising the total to a record-breaking 151 million tonnes (on a milled basis).

The predictions by the USDA indicate that the projected surge in production represents a substantial elevation of 11% when compared to the average yield over the past five years. The USDA has further predicted a stable crop area with an estimated 51.0 million hectares, equal to the previous record high, and a 7% increase from the average over the last five years. The yield figure, on a rough basis, is projected as a phenomenal 4.44 tonnes per hectare, a number that is unprecedented in the history of the country’s agriculture.

Promising farming conditions at the end of May were noted, suggesting an effective planting season underway for the rice crop. Reports from the Foreign Agricultural Service at the New Delhi Post of the USDA corroborate this, indicating that rice sowing was not only progressing well but was also ahead of the usual pace. The rice production figures for the current season have been estimated at 150 million tonnes, which surpasses the Indian government’s third advance estimate of 149.07 million tonnes.

Information from AMIS reveals that India has successfully completed the rabi and zaid (summer) rice harvest simultaneously while Southeast Asia is in the midst of transitioning between seasons. Amidst these developments stands the Food Corporation of India (FCI) holding record rice stocks. As of the first of June, the FCI’s reserves consisted of a staggering 37.99 million tonnes of rice and 32.26 million tonnes of unmilled paddy, the latter equivalent to 21.61 million tonnes of rice.

The trade of rice in the international market is currently experiencing a slowdown due to low demand, with most buyers maintaining considerable inventories. According to traders within the market, the current state of stagnation is likely to persist into the second half of July. Global rice production predictions for 2025-26 from AMIS also point towards an ‘all-time high’, backed by the anticipated abundant harvest in Asia, along with positive crop outlooks in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe.

These optimistic projections downplay setbacks in North America and Oceania. In a similar optimistic vein, the International Grains Council (IGC) anticipates an unparalleled output of 541 million tonnes of rice in the 2025-26 season. Adding to these assertive forecasts, the USDA expects a record high of wheat yield for the same season (April-March) to be 117.5 million tonnes, an assertion that aligns with the estimates put forward by the Indian government.

Adding more specifics to the projection, the harvested area is predicted to be 32.9 million hectares, marking a 3% increase compared to the prior year and a 5% increase relative to the five-year average. The yield per hectare is also predicted to hit a record high at 3.57 tonnes, a slight improvement on last year’s figures. In support of these forecasts, the USDA’s New Delhi post mentiones that from the outset of the sowing season in October, through to the end in April, a number of factors have been favorable for a bountiful harvest.

Satellite-derived observations underline the plentiful irrigation water resources, adequate soil moisture, and satisfactory crop progress. These observations are particularly relevant for the key wheat-growing regions in India, which include Uttar Pradesh (accounting for 30% of total production), Madhya Pradesh (23%), Punjab (15%), Rajasthan (10%), and Haryana (10%).

The favorable conditions have enabled swift planting, crop establishment, development, and grain filling. Farmers’ optimism was further boosted by the government’s announcement of relatively higher minimum support prices compared to the prior year, according to the USDA. AMIS concurred in its report, noting the completion of the wheat harvest in India under conditions that were nothing short of favorable.

FCI’s wheat stock situation as of June 1 also highlights positive market conditions, with inventories at a three-year high of 36.93 million tonnes. The Indian government has procured 30.02 million tonnes of wheat this year, slightly under the target of 32.27 million tonnes. Despite falling short of the target, this figure is higher than 26.6 million tonnes procured the previous year, indicating a healthy trajectory for wheat production moving forward.