The political preference of a state, often referred to as its ‘presidential lean,’ is instrumental in exposing its political tendencies over time. The presidential lean can deviate significantly over periods, as evident from the contrasting outcomes of the 2004 and 2024 elections. Kamala Harris, despite her inadequacy, managed to sway the Sun Belt Toss-up states to her side, meanwhile, it took several cycles for the Rust Belt Toss-ups to lean Democratic again.
During the presidential elections in 2004 and 2024, Republicans maintained a steady political front despite initially losing the popular vote. They eventually secured their place through a well-devised strategy that involved amplifying their majority in the Electoral College and winning the popular vote. This concerted strategy changed the electoral landscape between the two Republican victories.
Understanding the political shift of each state in the last twenty years provides an insightful perspective into presidential politics. To decipher this, one must consider the ‘lean’ of a state in comparison to the nation. If hypothetically, state A votes with a 2% edge for the Republican candidate versus a national tie, its ‘lean’ would be to the right, provided this margin remains constant in subsequent elections.
Keeping track of the partisan ‘lean’ over time, as abstract as it may sound, is fruitful in predicting potential political shifts. Map 1 provides an illustrative snapshot of this, highlighting the most Democratic lean for each state from 2004 to 2024. Ironically, these color-coded designations bear no partisan implications and are merely a tool for visual differentiation.
Circa 2004, states most inclined towards Democrats were seen shifting their loyalties away from the party, specifically states grouped around ‘Greater Appalachia.’ It is worth noting that these traditional democrat-strong states, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia, were at less than 20 points right of the national popular vote.
The succeeding years saw some drastic changes. Barack Obama in 2008 emerged as a strong Democratic candidate across most of the Upper Midwest. His performance boosted the Democratic numbers substantially, especially in states flanking Lake Michigan. The troubled economy during the Great Recession only worked to Democrats’ advantage.
Moving west towards Iowa and the Dakotas, the tally again skewed towards blue. This shift can be largely attributed to Senator John McCain’s stance against ethanol subsidies, which didn’t sit well with voters. However, other Mountain West states, primarily Nevada, continued to reel under economic distress and favored Democrats.
In a surprising turn of events, the intended local favorite Joe Biden could only plunge his home state Delaware 18 points left of the nation in 2008, a drop from the expected 15 points in 2020. Among the 7 light blue states, where Obama’s 2012 victory represented a robust Democratic presence, four distinct groups emerged.
The southern region witnessed a surge in the raw percentage margins while the east coast states flourished under Obama’s incumbency, largely due to Hurricane Sandy’s destructive path right before Election Day. Going a level deeper, all four House districts across Maine and Rhode Island leaned slightly more Democratic relative to the nation.
In 2012, Hawaii registered a more left-leaning electorate compared to the mainstream consensus, courtesy of its native son and Democratic candidate Obama. Hillary Clinton, in 2016, buoyed California almost 30 points left of the national vote, signaling consistent support by Hispanics and suburban voters, matching the pulse Joe Biden sensed in 2020.
By 2020, Biden had revamped the electoral calculus for Democrats in Texas and Massachusetts. Despite a dip in his Hispanic supporters, Biden managed to secure urban counties bringing the red stronghold Texas almost within single-digits Republican lean. The Trump era kept Massachusetts on a steady Democratic lean at around 27-30 points left of the nation.
Kamala Harris, in the 2024 elections, artificially showcased better performance as the Democratic nominee in 15 states based on adjustments made to align with a tied national vote. Breaking down the data further, dark orange states on Map 1 consisted of 3 out of the 4 Sun Belt states rated as Toss-ups during the campaign season.
Undeniably, Trump’s brilliant maneuver reclaiming Georgia with a 2-point margin in 2024, alongside the relatively stagnant North Carolina and Arizona, is a sharp reminder of the Republicans’ unyielding strength. Revealingly, Virginia remains a testament to steadied Democratic shifts, leaning 7.4% left of the national perspective in 2024.