Mamdani Emerges Strong in NYC Mayoral Race: New Poll

Zohran Mamdani, a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral race, is showing a substantial 15-point lead in the competition against his rivals according to the latest polling data. In the upcoming November election, the left-leaning democrat manages to gather 43% of voters’ support. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo trails with 28% while GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa stands at 10%. Current Mayor Eric Adams garners a mere 7%, leaving 9% of voters undecided, as indicated by the fresh study.

The 33-year-old assemblyman from Queens, Mamdani, has impressively outperformed Cuomo in the Democratic primary, seizing a commanding 29-point lead among voters under 50. This younger demographic appears to significantly favor Mamdani. However, he has also managed a slim victory over Cuomo within the category of voters over the age of 50, albeit with a tightly held 6-point lead.

In a hypothetical head-to-head contest, Mamdani would surpass Cuomo with a tally of 47% to 40%, according to the poll. His winning streak could also extend to Adams – surmounting him by 21 points, and Sliwa – where he would acquire a 24-point lead. This data is in accordance with another recent poll which reported Mamdani defeating Cuomo 48-44 in a pared-down two-candidate race.

Cuomo has made the case that his slightly better performance against Mamdani in a one-on-one scenario should serve as a clear hint for Adams and Sliwa to step back from this closely-contested race. He believes that their continued participation might actually help Mamdani clinch the win by fragmenting the anti-Mamdani vote. However, both Sliwa and Cuomo-aligned independent candidate Adams have vowed to hold their ground in the race for the time being.

There’s been a swirl of speculation about the future of Adams, who is presently struggling with low support in the polls. Some believe that he might receive alternative job offers leading him to withdraw from the quest for re-election. It’s suggested that the aim is to pave a clear path for a one-on-one battle, thereby improving the odds of derailing Mamdani, where Cuomo seems to be the most promising adversary.

However, the candidates opposing Mamdani still have numerous obstacles to surmount. Polling data suggests that Mamdani tends to be more well-liked among voters compared to his rivals. Almost half of the voters – 48%, in fact – have a favorable view of Mamdani. In contrast, 34% hold an unfavorable opinion of the socialist candidate.

When comparing with the other candidates, Cuomo carries a negative perception among 51% of the voters, Adams is seen unfavorably by 61%, and Sliwa is viewed negatively by 45%. It seems that Mamdani’s supporters are more steadfastly committed to him than the supporters of other candidates. The data indicates that those respondents who said they were ‘extremely likely’ to vote in November preferred Mamdani by a 19-point margin, with 46% supporting him and 27% in favor of Cuomo.

This robust support for Mamdani is backed by compelling evidence. Approximately 85% of his supporters said they would ‘definitely’ vote for him. This is contrasted with 74% of Sliwa voters, 72% of Cuomo voters, and 66% of those favoring Adams who expressed the same degree of commitment.

Turning to key issues among voters, the economy led the way, considered the most important by 27% of those polled. Threats to democracy weren’t far behind, with 25% of respondents listing it as a top issue. Concerns about healthcare and crime were each chosen by 11% of voters. Housing affordability and immigration were the other pressing issues, selected by 9% and 6% respectively.

A commendable 66% of voters are backing a hypothetical 2% tax increase on those with incomes over $1 million a year, with only 18% in opposition. Among Mamdani’s supporters, this potential tax hike finds even more approval, with an overwhelming 81% in favor against a meager 5% opposition. Even among Cuomo’s followers, a considerable 56% supports this tax proposition against 30% opposing it.

Mamdani has proposed this exact tax increase on the wealthy as a method to fund his proposed free child care and public transport programs. This initiative, however, would require legislative approval at a state level and is aimed at addressing income inequality and boosting economic welfare among lower-income citizens.

The survey found personal financial issues near the top of voters’ concerns. Reflecting this, 43% of voters said their family’s finances were worse today than a year ago, while 41% felt there was no difference. A small fraction, 17%, thought they were better off financially than the previous year.

Despite a decline in crime rates in New York City, crime sentiment persists as a major issue for voters. Around 42% of the polled voters felt that their community safety hadn’t altered over the past four years, 39% believed their community was less safe now, and only 19% considered it safer.

The poll, conducted over September 7-8, gathered these insights from 600 voters, with a margin of error hovering around +/- 3.9 percentage points. These findings depict a clear picture of the novel support structure formed around Mamdani and the challenges facing his rivals.