MLB Betting Trends: Analytical Approach for Upcoming Games Revealed

The collection of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting trends provided herein reflects an in-depth analytical approach to predicting oncoming games for Thursday, April 10, 2025. The provided information summarizes the methodical tactics employed by Steve Makinen, backed by the VSiN Analytics team, in their daily assessment of the MLB board.

In the past, teams caught in a losing spiral of seven or more consecutive games, while facing opponents from the same division, have had a poor track record. Their win-loss record over their last 99 encounters is 33 to 66, reflecting a significant disadvantage and producing negative returns of -18.71 units (ROI: -18.9%). Such data underscores the tendency of divisional rivals to clamp down on struggling adversaries.

A separate trend that has emerged over the past six-plus seasons is the rebound of teams playing at home following a devastating defeat by seven or more runs. This very scenario has proven to be a promising bet, generating a 371-354 (51.2%) record and returns of +25.18 units, equating to a 3.5% ROI.

Notable individual performance trends also offer valuable insights. For instance, within the past six seasons, Chris Bassitt has achieved an impressive 25-8 record in daytime games against teams with losing statistics, consequently, delivering returns of +13.37 units.

Another consistent pattern for bettors to consider: a predominant trend that leans towards ‘under the total’ in recent match-ups between the White Sox and the Guardians when played in Cleveland. Over their previous 24 face-offs, the ‘under’ option has resulted in a 16-8 outcome (66.7%), generating positive returns of +7.14 units, and thus, delivering a noteworthy ROI of 29.8%.

Betting strategies based on Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings have also proven effective, especially when backing heavy favorites (-190 or more) with superior bullpen evaluations and a win rate higher or equal to a 19% spread from the opponent. So far in 2025, this strategy demonstrates promising results with a strong record of 9-2, yielding +4.84 units and an impressive 44% ROI.

Interestingly, for the last two seasons, underdog teams with superior bullpen ratings have proven to be viable bets. While their win-loss record stood at 701-790, they, in fact, brought forth an encouraging return of +46.27 units. Though the performance dipped in the 2024 season as it resulted in a loss of 26.45 units, a positive turnaround is expected in 2025.

However, the current season’s start has been a bit sluggish for these underdog teams with better bullpen ratings. Data shows a rather mediocre 27-40 record, leading to a negative return of -8.92 units. It’s worthwhile to anticipate a more positive curve as the season progresses.

It’s worth noting that VSiN.com’s betting splits pages remain an invaluable source of information for bettors. These pages, made possible by DraftKings’ invaluable data contributions, present comprehensive breakdowns of point spreads, money lines, and totals for each game.

There are other systems that offer insights into game-by-game betting, especially focused on opening and closing games of a series. Comprehensive analysis on such specificially aligned matches was shared in an article published on April 3, 2025.

MLB Extreme Stats Systems is another resource that offers betting strategies for teams based on significant statistics from their latest games. More such systems were disseminated in an article that scrutinized team performance during streaks, whether winning or losing.

The daily ratings tab on VSiN.com also provides valuable information about ongoing trends and projections. An example would be the UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG and UNDERPRICED FAVORITE projections based on the Makinen Strength Ratings. On the specified day, Chicago White Sox received a +205 (+25 diff) rating and Milwaukee were rated -115 (+18 diff), both signaling potential value bets.

The Makinen Strength Ratings also provide an excellent guide for betting on total projections. The BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) was stated for a game between PHI and ATL with the OVER at 7.5 (+0.8).

Conversely, for the BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more), the recommendation pointed towards the game between TOR and BOS with UNDER 9 runs expected (-0.5).

Besides team trends and game-based analysis, understanding how a starting pitcher performs in particular conditions is crucial. Regarding the series between Chi White Sox and Cleveland occurring from Tue 4/8 to Thu 4/10, historical performance once again leaned towards ‘under the total’. The earlier mentioned 16-8 result in similar match-ups endorsed this trend with an ROI of 29.8%.

Regrettably, no immediate qualifying momentum angles were visible for the day in discussion. However, bettors can look forward to updated insights on April 11, which may offer further guidance.