Newsom’s Hollow Hype: Smoke and Mirrors Over Real Popularity

In the aftermath of a resonating defeat for the Democratic party in the 2024 election resulting in President Donald Trump’s second term victory, Californian Governor Gavin Newsom has, somewhat inexplicably, risen as a chief player in the Democrats’ squabble against the existing government. Newsom, although he has not declared any personal aspirations for the presidency, seems to be favored to win the 2028 Democratic primary in two states as per the aggregate polls.

Newsom’s press team, in their desperate attempt to mirror the current President, has started an aggressive public relations campaign, publishing vitriolic, all-capital messages. Interestingly, Newsom’s final run as the governor of California will conclude in 2026, creating a strong hypothesis among some that he may vie for the Democrats’ Presidential ticket for 2028.

According to the combined polling tracker, ‘Race to the White House’, Newsom is leading in two states – California, his residence state, with a 23.2 percent preference, and Ohio with a 20 percent backing. Notably, Newsom is enjoying a slim advantage – a little more than 5 percent – over former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in both states.

Nevertheless, Buttigieg seems to be showing better momentum in other states, where he holds a 23 percent favorability in Florida, followed by 16.8 percent in North Carolina, and 21.6 percent in Texas. In contrast, Newsom’s standing in these states is considerably demeaned; he secures only 12 percent in Florida.

Despite living under the illusion of a leading frontrunner, Newsom finds himself trailing even the likes of New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Florida. He clinches just 10.2 percent support in North Carolina, where Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee from 2024 who faced a miserable defeat in the election, is still managing to hold the second place.

Further, with his 19.5 percent favours in Texas, Newsom is barely managing to stay in the race, lagging behind Buttigieg. Polling information for other states is still under wraps.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Newsom for his low polling numbers, adding insult to injury by singling him out as the ‘man destroying the once Great State of California’. Clearly, Newsom’s alleged popularity in the polls seems to bear no ground in the real world political scenario.

Moreover, following a legally dubious bill signing, Newsom dismissed the very law he was elected to uphold, claiming simply that ‘it’s not the rule of law. It’s the rule of Don’, in a thinly veiled jab to the President. As he lamented, ‘They fired the first shot in Texas,’ making it clear he was willing to go tit-for-tat in this battle of egos.

On the other hand, Bob Shrum, an old-timer Democratic strategist, seems to believe Newsom’s pointless grapple with the current administration is a show of ‘fire against fire’ that supposedly has a significant impact. The so-called determination of Democrats finding new ways to return fire seems more of a scheme born out of frustration with the current President.

Indeed, Newsom’s dichotomous role as a so-called foil to the current government and a dark horse for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination offers a cautionary tale of party politics going awry. Despite the fawning coverage of his exploits, Newsom has not given any indications whether he plans to run for the White House in 2028.

Should he decide to throw his hat into the 2028 Presidential race, Newsom would indeed be displaying a brazen disregard for his current lack of broad appeal. His current waning support in pivotal states paints a dire picture of his potential success on the national stage.

In fact, his current standing raises concerns that a gubernatorial tenure marred with souring public sentiment may not prepare an ideal platform for a legitimate run at the Presidency. And his recent adoption of cheap imitative tactics is a testament to his desperation rather than a feasible political strategy.

Even if the aggregate polls seem to put Newsom in the spotlight, they obscure his outright lack of momentum and the favor that lies with other potential Democratic contenders. From a distance, one may misconstrue these stats as indicative of Newsom’s firm standing within the Democratic party until a closer reflection reveals a starkly different picture.

Ultimately, as a figure of significance within the Democratic party, Newsom’s public image continues to polarize. But his seeming antagonism towards the rule of law suggests an underlying dissonance that might complicate his growing popularity within his party, casting doubt on his political aspirations beyond 2026.

Within this landscape, the real question should ideally be – can Democrats afford to place such a risky bet on Gavin Newsom when other potential contenders display more momentum and widespread popular support? His shadowy popularity makes it clear that a successful presidential nomination bid lies in forging lasting connections – something that Newsom is currently struggling to achieve.