Understanding the ‘presidential tilt’ of a state can offer insightful data about its political trajectory. A close examination of the last two decades will reveal the curious shift of the Heartland and Midwest regions towards the GOP, with the Sunbelt areas becoming increasingly Democratic. When applying our ‘leanings’ measurement, it is intriguing to note how Donald Trump remained tenacious in several battleground states in 2020, even though he did not retain his presidential title that year. Interestingly, Florida was at its peak Democratic sway in 2004 and evolved to be at its apex Republican swing last year, which indicates an unequivocal Republican drift over the last two decades.
Probing into the individual political shifts of states since 2004 reveals some noteworthy patterns. Unveiled a fortnight ago, an initial investigation illustrated a nationwide overview of states trending towards the Democrats. This round of research undertakes a similar approach, with the focus now on states inclined towards the Republicans. Utilizing Louisiana’s election results as a reference, about 60% of voters supported the GOP, with a similar pattern observed during last year’s election which saw Donald Trump at the forefront.
However, there is a divergence in the voting trend. Even though John McCain was defeated at a national level in 2008, he managed to preserve a similar voting margin in Louisiana. In light of this, McCain’s election results in Louisiana might appear more commendable than Trump’s, considering the national election outcome. These observations lay the foundation for the ‘leaning’ metric adopted in our analysis.
Among the 13 states deemed the most Republican during the 2004 elections, many have deviated, long-term, towards voting Democratic–counterintuitive considering they were the most Republican relative to the national average in the least recent election. Remarkably, 9 of these 13 states favored Democrats the most in 2024. The Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington were within 10 percentage points of 2004’s national vote, moving left by 10 points by 2024.
George W. Bush’s performance in California and Hawaii could be described as noteworthy. Shifting westward, Bush’s victory in Colorado and New Mexico was later replaced by Democratic nominees. Nebraska and its predominantly GOP electorate still amassed Democratic gains–particularly noticeable in Omaha and Lincoln areas since 2004. But strangely, a significant portion of Texas has leaned right over this period, despite Bush’s unprecedented showing.
Regions along the Eastern Seaboard like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia expressed strong support for George W. Bush during 2004. Two decades later, Virginia is swaying towards the left, with Georgia and North Carolina both showing fierce political competition. Even as Kamala Harris failed to secure Georgia, the state’s GOP leaning continued its steady decline.
Shifting focus to the four most Republican states of 2008, the states that stand out are Arizona and Alaska; primarily because of their substantial lean to the GOP. Despite its interesting movement towards the right, Arizona still placed itself at about 4 points right of the nation in the recent presidential elections. Alaska, too, exhibited a significant reduction in its Republican lean but lacks popularity as a contender in future Democratic presidential elections.
2008 also saw an increase in GOP lean in Louisiana due to the migration of a large portion of its Black population following Hurricane Katrina. Thanks to McCain’s wide margin in New Orleans, Louisiana’s GOP lean rose from 12 points in 2004 to 26 points in 2008.
Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance in Kansas and Utah could be termed as the GOP’s most remarkable showing. This can be attributed to his strength in urban areas in Kansas and his religious affiliation in Utah. However, the Republican lean in these two states has progressively lessened despite their overall GOP standing.
Of the 20 states that showed the strongest GOP lean in 2016, it included a range of states from Oklahoma to West Virginia that historically voted red. Interestingly, the state of Michigan was part of this group. This could be interpreted as a one-off occurrence since Joe Biden won Michigan in the 2020 election and the state leaned left of the national popular vote in 2024.
States such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada that backed Trump in the 2020 elections seem contradictory to those that supported him in 2016. They are few but hosted some of the most hotly contested electoral battles. Despite being usually left of the nation in pre-Trump elections, they remained fiercely competitive during 2016, 2020, and 2024, regardless of the national outcomes.
Reflecting on the 2024 elections, Trump’s performance was unsurpassed in New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, primarily driven by the urban sway in the New York vicinity. Mississippi, previously considered a potential Democratic target, has significantly shifted towards the GOP.
Over the years, Florida has demonstrated a discernable shift from being the most Democratic state in 2004 to the most Republican in 2024. Paralleling the current political climate, this map follows the state-level trends that have been the subject of recent discussions. Despite internal shifts across the electoral map over the past years, we remain in a time of keenly competitive elections.