Tracking New York’s Criminal Justice Shift from the 90s to Today

The criminal legal sphere in New York City finds itself at a monumental juncture, as per recent studies from the Data Collaborative for Justice along with the University of Maryland. The years have seen a consistent decrease in crime rates and regulation, however, lately the city has been grappling with a resurgence of disputes related to societal safety, law enforcement methods, quest for justice, and racial inequalities. These insights were released by the Justice at a Crossroads Project recognizing the necessity for policy discussions guided by hard facts and data. The project’s objective is to provide an objective data grounding to critical policy dialogues and track the constantly shifting dynamics of criminal justice from the nineties till the present.

The researchers, in pursuit of this aim, unveiled two supplementary studies: One reconsidering Crime, Enforcement, Incarceration, and Racial Disparities and the other scrutinizing crimes in New York City with the assistance of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). The former report highlights an impressive decrease in both violent and property-related crimes from 1990 to 2019, with violent crimes witnessing a reduction of 77%, and property crimes observing a fall by 81%. However, a concerning development was observed between 2019 and 2023, when violent crimes spiked up by 18% and property crimes saw a surge of 58%.

Worth noting is the fact that shooting incidents escalated from 777 in 2019 to a staggering 1,562 in 2021, only to later decline to 974 in 2023. The subsequent report offers valuable insights into unreported crimes utilizing the NCVS data set. The findings indicate that non-fatal violent acts and property crimes decreased by over 60% during the period from 1997 to 2008. Thereafter, the situation stayed largely steady with minor increases noted through 2021.

An apparent decline in public trust towards law enforcement authorities has been documented: During the period spanning from 2005 to 2021, the percentage of crime victims reporting property crime to the NYPD fell from 40% to just above 20%. The number of victims expressing the belief that ‘police wouldn’t be of help’ as their reason for not reporting incidents noticeably rose. The study uncovers a significant waning in law enforcement actions over the previous decade, followed by a minor recent increase.

Pedestrian stops fell by 99% from 2011 to 2021, and then saw a threefold increase under the leadership of the Adams administration reaching 25,386 in the year 2024. Criminal summons tumbled by 91% between 2006 and 2021 but surprisingly doubled once more by 2024. Civil summons, particularly those for minor transgressions such as public alcohol consumption, saw an eight-time increase between 2021 and 2024. Drug law enforcement saw a parallel dramatic decrease.

Felony drug arrests have seen a decline by 84% since 1990, and misdemeanor drug possession arrests degreased by 77% post 2000. Arrests related to marijuana plunged from over 51,000 incidences in 2011 down to none by the year 2023. Simultaneously, there’s been a noticeable trend of prosecutors increasingly letting go of pursuing minor-level cases. The period from 2017 to 2023 saw the misdemeanor declination rate double, climbing from 8% to 19%.

The practice of setting bail has also seen a meaningful reduction through the years leading up to and following the bail reform of 2020: Prepared by 2023, bail was handed out in a mere 6% of misdemeanor cases and 26% of non-aggressive felony cases. The number of convictions for misdemeanors also took a tumble, spiralling down from 36% in 1990 to a low of 8% in 2023.

Between 1990 and 2020, New York City demonstrated an impressive large-scale decarceration. The daily jail population slumped from over 20,000 people at its peak in 1991 to less than 4,000 by 2020. However, that number gradually rose again to an unsettling 6,800 by 2025. Populations in state penitentiaries also saw a marked decline, particularly for drug-related offenses, which experienced a drop of 86% from their height in 1999.

In the meantime, alternative-to-incarceration (ATI) initiatives have seen growth. Though enrolment dipped during phases of lower crime rates and arrests, it peaked with more than 19,000 participants in the year 2023. While each racial and ethnic group has seen overall declines in system engagement, disparities persist. Black and Hispanic residents of New York continue to grapple with disproportionate law enforcement and incarceration rates.

Between 2019 and 2023, the disparity between Black and white citizens grew in most areas, the exceptions being summonses and jail sentences. The starkest disparities were seen in prison incarceration rates and pedestrian stops. The Crossroads Project sounds a bell of caution, warning that the city is on the precipice of a crucial decision.

While extended trends hint at progress in reducing crime rates and incarceration, recent changes in law enforcement and public trust underscore the necessity for a balanced approach. With the city legally obliged to shut down Rikers Island, researchers urge legislators to funnel resources into expanding mental health services, expedite case proceedings, and invest in community-based incarceration alternatives.

The researchers conclude that understanding the crime trends in New York City, the instances of crime victims, and the evolution of the city’s reaction to crime will afford visibility into the choices the city is currently confronted with.