In his ultimate interaction with the trade deadline during his tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals, John Mozeliak, the team’s president of baseball operations, is wise enough not to deal in certainties, particularly in this unpredictable year. With the Cardinals oscillating between winning and losing in a highly competitive National League, the decision to buy, sell or maintain the existing team composition at Major League Baseball’s trade deadline — set for July 31 at 5 p.m. CT — may well be a photo finish. As the calendar pages inch closer to the 31st, decision-making intensifies. A downturn in the Cardinals’ performance during July could, however, necessitate a shift in this strategy.
The recent victory against the Chicago Cubs — propelled forward by a decisive three-run homer from pinch-hitter Yohel Pozo — has helped stabilize the team after a recent dip in their performance. The Cardinals’ strategic plans, regardless of the team’s short-term trajectory, will continue to focus primarily on Michael McGreevy’s career progression. The Cardinals have aspirations for McGreevy, who has so far showcased his abilities in four appearances (three as a starting pitcher) in the 2021 season, to ascend to a full-time position in the rotation. However, plotting a road towards this end goal could pose challenges.
At this point, we do not have the assurance we need regarding the alternatives to McGreevy. Throughout the upcoming weeks, there will undoubtedly be circumstances that present an opportunity to bring Michael to the main team. In a less than ideal situation, he will have a definite role on the team by the time we reach August. So, what else is on Mozeliak’s plate as we head towards the trade deadline? It’s time to delve deeper and explore.
Could acquiring a right-handed batter be among the Cardinals’ strategies? When Mozeliak was asked directly about the possibility of this, he did not confirm it as an immediate objective. However, he didn’t dismiss the Cardinals’ struggles against left-handed pitchers, which has been a noticeable issue. He noted that they have managed to open many doors for the players they were eager to field. The team has benefitted from consistent performances from their starting pitchers, while their relievers, although fluctuating, have played their key roles with considerable steadiness and efficiency.
Though trade rumors and negotiations will likely reach fever pitch following the All-Star break and MLB’s yearly amateur draft, a loose idea of what different franchises may be pursuing is already starting to emerge. Teams are constantly on the lookout for strong pitching, and especially so this year, with an uptick in injuries driving up demand. If the Cardinals elect to buy, how serious will they be about it? It’s a question Mozeliak will likely tackle with finesse.
Discussing the ‘all-in’ strategy, one must consider the Cardinals’ current franchise situation and a reduction in payroll, while also taking a long-term view. They are striving to strike a balance between immediate success and sustainable prosperity. If the Cardinals decide to bring in new talent, they will remain aware of the necessity to avoid negatively impacting other players who are likely to be crucial to their plans for next season and the foreseeable future.
Athletes like Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson and a healthy Herrera will be prioritized. Additionally, Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker have the potential to become more central to their strategy. This might imply that if the Cardinals venture into the market, they could consider a short-term, or ‘rental’, batter.
If the Cardinals align towards acquiring more assets, what extent will they commit to this decision? Once again, Mozeliak will need to carefully consider all angles. The current situation of the franchise, downsized payroll and a focus on long-term vision means that success now has to be weighed up alongside sustained progress in the future.
It’s common knowledge that the trade deadline traditionally favors the sellers. Similar to the previous season, the current scenario doesn’t see many teams as absolute sellers. Given this opportunity, could the Cardinals explore the potential to offer some of their pitching talent? When it pertains to their final-line relievers, it seems unlikely.
Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz and Phil Maton, all currently playing on expiring contracts, bring considerable experience from postseasons, reliable performance histories and are delivering commendable performances in the current season. These are all attributes that contending teams frequently seek out and are often willing to pay a premium for. However, as the Cardinals also aim for the championship, they might hesitate to part ways with any of these three.
Is it possible that, instead of their top relievers, the Cardinals might consider offering a seasoned starting pitcher? Such a move would clear a path for permanent elevation of McGreevy and could result in valuable returns for the team. However, they probably wouldn’t entertain offers for Sonny Gray, who possesses a full no-trade clause. Likewise, Miles Mikolas, despite his full no-trade clause, would most likely not consider waiving it. This leaves Erick Fedde.
Fedde, in his final year of a two-year, $15 million contract, has been undergoing a rough patch. His ERA in his last five starts has risen to 6.66, including seven earned runs in both of his two most recent games. It’s crucial for him to regain his form, not only for salvaging the team’s season but also to elevate his potential trade value.
Three weeks stay before Mozeliak has to pull the trigger on the final decision. The Cardinals’ performance until the end of July will determine how much time he has left to make this crucial decision.