U.S. Aims to Break Alliance Between Moscow and Beijing

The current leadership is making strong attempts to dismantle the solid alliance between Moscow and Beijing. The recently concluded U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden have raised eyebrows, sparking suspicions of a deeper diplomatic agenda beyond mere commercial deals. Essentials of this strategy include the aspiration to alienate China from Russia, thereby strengthening our hand against Russian aggressiveness.

Notably, the President seems bothered by the stalemate situation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and looks for new ways to break the impasse. Consequently, he introduces changes in the U.S. approach to arming Ukraine and sets timelines for implementing fresh sanctions against Russia.

Echoing the sentiments of many observers, the President views China’s alliance as a critical support pillar for Russia. Therefore, a significant part of the strategy hinges on splintering China away from Russia. The intent is to diminish China’s economic and other forms of assistance to Moscow, removing a layer of protection and bolstering international pressure.

There’s unmistakable evidence of the President’s interest in a substantial trade deal with China—a goal that remained elusive during the first term. However, as per Mr. Bessent’s interpretations, a grander diplomatic détente could be on the horizon. The hypothetical détente will materialize if Chinese President Xi Jinping agrees to discontinue backing Russia’s war efforts.

Undoubtedly, during his interaction with the influential figure, He Lifeng, Mr. Bessent discussed the impending ‘secondary sanctions’ bill awaiting Senate approval. The proposed legislation threatens massive tariffs—potentially up to an astronomical 500%—on nations that buy Russian oil and gas in a show of support for Russia’s war actions.

With China and India being the principal potential recipients of these sanctions, implications for their economies could be severe. Given the President’s endorsement, the bill is virtually guaranteed swift Senate clearance through an overwhelming bipartisan majority vote.

The warning was heeded by India after the President cautioned against Russian oil procurement and threatened a 25% tariff on Indian merchandise. This week’s cessation of Russian oil purchases by India’s state refineries, as reported by Reuters, signals a stark recognition of the consequences.

China’s previous exhibiting of trade leverage—evidenced by its rare-earth minerals withholding—demonstrates that it’s not without tools in a trade dispute. Nonetheless, the proposed secondary sanctions, coming at a time when the Chinese economy is already vulnerable, would undoubtedly inflict economic pain.

Support for a prolonged trade ceasefire with the U.S. would likely be received positively in Beijing, especially if it involves rolling back some of the Trump-era tariffs. Diplomatic indications from the President also hint at a potential thawing in U.S.-China relations.

In a significant gesture, the ban on advanced computer chip sales to China—specifically Nvidia’s H20 chips—was lifted, satisfying a high-priority trade request from Beijing. There are also indications that the U.S. may have swayed Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te from making a U.S. stopover en route to Latin America. This maneuver was likely viewed favorably in Beijing, registering as a concession.

While no official confirmation is available, the lack of denial also speaks volumes. The cancellation of President Lai’s trip further suggests that these alleged pressures may not be unfounded. However, these China-friendly moves are stirring unease among conservative China policy experts domestically.

Despite the critique from a group of national security experts, primarily protesting the H20 chip sales, the potential rewards of a substantial diplomatic breakthrough make the risks appear worthwhile. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time in history where exploiting stress in Russia-China relations led to significant policy wins. The President’s recent actions recall President Nixon’s Cold War masterstroke of ending China’s international isolation through skillful manipulation of Russia-China tensions.

The present administration believes the Ukraine conflict has inadvertently brought Russia and China closer. Therefore, the rationale behind this new strategy is to belie this alliance, potentially coercing Russia into negotiations with Ukraine. Yet how this calculus will evolve, particularly if the President takes concrete steps toward secondary sanctions, remains uncertain.

Moreover, what exactly President Xi might demand in exchange for distancing China from Russia, besides escaping the threats of sanctions, is unknown. Xi has a longstanding goal of reintegrating Taiwan with mainland China and his military has been undergoing training for a theoretical island blockade. The key question is whether the President would be willing to compromise U.S. backing for Taiwan in the interest of negotiating with Russia.

The President’s reputation as a deal-maker is well-established, and he sought breakthroughs with all of America’s prime adversaries—Iran, Russia, China, even North Korea—in his second term. Thus far, he’s faced rejection from Iran and Russia. Now, speculation abounds if his gaze is fixed on the potential held behind this ostensibly third door: China.