GOP Sees Opportunity In New York House Races Despite Trump’s Weak Polling Numbers
Republicans believe they have an opportunity to gain congressional seats in New York this November, pointing to favorable local trends and strong performances in suburban and upstate races despite President Trump‘s continued unpopularity across the state.
A new analysis from the National Republican Congressional Committee argues that Republican gubernatorial candidate and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman could provide momentum for GOP House candidates by running strongly against Governor Kathy Hochul in key battleground regions.
“In New York, Republicans are in the strongest electoral position possible because while Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the ground, Republicans are delivering,” NRCC spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole said.
She argued that lower taxes and public safety concerns could help Republicans make inroads with voters frustrated by the state’s direction.
Democrats quickly dismissed the analysis, pointing to polling that shows President Trump remains deeply unpopular among New York voters. A recent Siena College survey found that only 32 percent of voters viewed Trump favorably, while 63 percent held an unfavorable opinion of him.
The numbers were similarly challenging for Republicans in suburban areas where several of the state’s most competitive congressional races will be decided.
New York Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs rejected the GOP’s optimism, saying Republicans were relying too heavily on past election results instead of current political realities.
“I don’t think anyone is going to believe this fantasy,” Jacobs said. “Donald Trump is the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon.”
Republicans counter that local results suggest a more competitive environment than statewide polling may indicate. Blakeman won reelection as Nassau County Executive by double digits and Republicans swept countywide offices in Nassau County in 2025.
The GOP also points to recent victories in local races within congressional districts currently represented by Democrats, including gains in Long Beach and strong performances in areas represented by Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen.
In New York’s Third Congressional District, Republicans believe former Assemblyman Mike LiPetri could make the race competitive after losing to Suozzi by only three percentage points in their previous matchup.
Meanwhile, first-term Representative Laura Gillen faces a challenge from Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll in the Fourth District, another race Republicans believe could tighten as the campaign progresses.
The Hudson Valley’s Seventeenth District is also expected to be closely watched as Republican Congressman Mike Lawler seeks reelection against Army veteran Cait Conley, who recently secured the Democratic nomination.
Upstate, Republicans are hopeful state Senator Peter Oberacker can unseat first-term Democratic Representative Josh Riley in the Nineteenth District, arguing that Oberacker’s existing support base gives him a viable path to victory.
Despite Republican optimism, polling continues to show Hochul with a significant advantage in the governor’s race, leading Blakeman by twenty points with less than five months remaining before Election Day.
Democrats argue that current economic concerns and Trump’s standing with voters will outweigh local Republican successes from previous election cycles.
“You can’t fight last year’s war,” Jacobs said. “Elections aren’t about years past but about the future and the present.”