Xavier Becerra Holds 18-Point Lead Over Trump-Backed Steve Hilton in California Governor’s Race

Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race to become California’s next governor, according to a new poll showing the GOP nominee gaining some ground but still facing a steep uphill battle.

The latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found Becerra leading Hilton 55% to 37% among likely voters, with 7% still undecided. The November winner will replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is prohibited from seeking another term.

The 18-point advantage is nevertheless an improvement for Hilton compared with an earlier poll that showed him trailing by 25 points. The Republican is attempting to convince voters that California needs a dramatic change after years of Democratic control in Sacramento.

Becerra, who previously served as California attorney general and HHS secretary under President Joe Biden, has benefited from the state’s overwhelming Democratic advantage. Registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in California, creating a difficult electoral environment for any GOP candidate.

Hilton has consolidated Republican voters behind his campaign, with 91% of GOP likely voters supporting him. Becerra similarly dominates among Democrats, receiving support from 94% of likely voters affiliated with his party.

Independent voters represent a major challenge for Hilton. Becerra leads among voters with no party preference by a wide margin, while Hilton’s unfavorable ratings among independents remain significantly higher than his favorable numbers.

Hilton has attempted to make the election a referendum on Democratic leadership of California, focusing heavily on the cost of living, taxes, homelessness, crime, energy prices and government regulations. He has argued that voters frustrated with conditions in the state should be willing to break with their normal partisan preferences.

President Trump endorsed Hilton during the Republican primary, helping the former Fox News host consolidate conservative support and advance to the general election. Hilton finished second in California’s top-two primary with roughly 25% of the vote, behind Becerra at approximately 28%.

Becerra has sought to turn Hilton’s relationship with Trump into a liability. The former Biden administration official has positioned himself as an opponent of the president and has emphasized his record of repeatedly suing the Trump administration while serving as California attorney general.

The geographic divide in the new poll reflects California’s broader political landscape. Becerra holds substantial advantages in Los Angeles, San Diego, the Bay Area and the Central Coast, while Hilton performs strongest in the state’s more conservative inland regions.

Hilton still has nearly three months to close the gap before Election Day. His campaign will need to make substantial gains among independents and Democratic crossover voters if Republicans hope to overcome California’s enormous partisan disadvantage and capture the governor’s mansion for the first time in years.