U.S. Service Member Suspected of Making More Than $1 Million Betting on Secret Military Operations

A U.S. military service member is under federal investigation for allegedly making more than $1 million through prediction-market bets tied to upcoming American military operations against Iran and Venezuela, raising serious concerns about the potential misuse of sensitive government information.

Federal authorities are reportedly preparing criminal charges against the unidentified service member, who has been under scrutiny since the spring. Investigators suspect the individual used privileged knowledge about upcoming military actions to place highly profitable wagers on Polymarket.

The service member allegedly made successful bets connected to U.S. military strikes involving Iran and Venezuela. Authorities have not publicly identified the individual or revealed exactly which operations were involved, leaving many details of the investigation under wraps.

The case is part of a growing federal crackdown on government employees, military personnel and others suspected of exploiting confidential information on prediction markets. Such platforms allow users to wager on the outcomes of real-world events ranging from elections and corporate earnings to geopolitical developments and military actions.

The Justice Department has already pursued a similar case involving Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a Special Forces soldier accused of using classified information about the U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket.

Prosecutors allege Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of the operation and then used information unavailable to the public to make wagers concerning the timing and outcome of the mission. Authorities say those bets generated more than $400,000 in profits.

Van Dyke has been charged with offenses related to the alleged misuse of confidential government information, wire fraud and money laundering. The allegations against him have not yet been proven in court.

The latest investigation could prove even more significant because of the amount of money involved. The unidentified service member allegedly collected more than $1 million, making the case one of the most lucrative examples yet of suspected insider betting involving American military operations.

Researchers have also uncovered evidence suggesting the problem could extend far beyond a handful of individuals. An analysis released this month identified more than 150 Polymarket wallets whose trading patterns suggested they may have benefited from inside information about U.S. military activity.

Those accounts reportedly generated millions of dollars by wagering on military developments, often making unusually successful bets on outcomes considered unlikely by the broader market. The pattern has raised alarms that individuals with access to sensitive information could be turning national security secrets into personal profit.

The implications extend well beyond financial misconduct. Suspicious betting activity surrounding an upcoming military operation could potentially provide foreign governments and intelligence agencies with clues about American plans before those operations become public.

Federal officials have increasingly warned government personnel about those risks. White House employees have previously been reminded that using nonpublic government information to make prediction-market bets can constitute a criminal offense.

Another controversy emerged in July when President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator was placed on leave after reportedly winning approximately $100,000 by betting on what the president would say during upcoming speeches.

Authorities are now examining several cases involving prediction markets, including an investigation into an employee of accounting giant KPMG who allegedly wagered on whether a public company would exceed quarterly earnings expectations using confidential financial information.

Polymarket has said it monitors its platform for suspicious trading activity and has reportedly referred dozens of questionable digital wallets to authorities. Federal regulators and prosecutors are simultaneously increasing their scrutiny of whether existing fraud and insider-trading laws can be applied to the rapidly expanding prediction-market industry.

The investigation into the unidentified service member remains ongoing, and no charges have yet been publicly announced. But if prosecutors can establish that sensitive military information was used to generate more than $1 million in personal profits, the case could become one of the most serious examples yet of the national security risks created by insider betting on war.