China Eyes New Global Balance Amid US Unpredictability

At the dawn of an impactful week for China, there is evident awareness of the global lens focused on them. During a period of wild global disorder, characterized by ongoing conflicts and unreliable international norms, China is maneuvering cautiously on the international stage with a clear motive. Particularly as the United States under Donald Trump exhibits increasing independence, often sidelining or upsetting long-standing allies with trade tariffs, China is demonstrating its capacity to rally global leadership and subtly air its desire to build a new global balance, one that strongly counters American principles.

Perhaps the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit, or the SCO, isn’t familiar to most, but it kick-starts a pivotal series of grand affairs in China this week. The summit attracts influential figures from some of the world’s most considerable and what some might label as ‘controversial’ nations. At first glance, it appears like a security conference, initially established to converse border disagreements amongst a few of China’s closest neighbors.

However, the summit has grown beyond its original mandate, involving approximately 26 countries from Asia, Europe, and Africa, representing an astonishing 43% of the world’s populace and 23% of global GDP. It’s been described as the ‘nexus of turmoil,’ and when you look at the attendees – leaders from Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Belarus, and Turkey – it’s easy to understand why.

Although these participating countries are not tied by any joint defense agreement and no significant pacts are likely to arise, the optics could be impressive and could undeniably send shockwaves to observers in the west. The Ukraine crisis and Trump’s diminishing efforts to establish peace will undeniably claim attention during these discussions.

Vladimir Putin, in the midst of an honorific visit, finds this summit to be an opportune platform to reinforce ties with countries that have helped keep his nation economically sound. China, who has consistently maintained a stance of neutrality on the Ukraine issue, has been an economic buoy for Russia’s war efforts, offering logistical supplies, a market for its gas and oil, with substantial diplomatic protection.

China does have some interest in an end to the war, being allergic to unpredictability as it would like to bid on contracts to rebuild Ukraine post-conflict. However, China won’t favor any conclusion that leaves Putin appearing defeated or Trump triumphant. From China’s perspective, the war serves a beneficial purpose, distracting America and reducing the attention it can give to them.

Furthermore, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attendance is a surprising victory for China’s president, Xi Jinping. It’s important to understand, there’s a history of deep resentment between the planet’s two most populated nations. A longstanding border dispute that got violent in 2020 and a fierce rivalry in the region exists.

Moreover, Modi has stayed away from China for the past seven years. However, this summit comes at a time when the relationship between the US and India has soured dramatically. The US, which has over the years tried to coax India into being a strong regional ally, imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods, upsetting Modi greatly.

To add insult to injury, Trump reportedly boasted about supposedly easing a surge in tensions with Pakistan earlier. In this climate, China is more than willing to open its arms to those who are pushed out by Trump. The week of intense diplomacy will culminate on Wednesday with a colossal military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, marking 80 years since Japan’s capitulation in WWII.

In this grand finale, Xi won’t be alone on the stage but will share the spotlight with Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, attending a multilateral event of this scale for the first time. They will spectate as tens of thousands of troops march along, flaunting ‘fourth-generation’ weaponry, some revealed to the public for the first time. This show of military might will underscore an episode of acute symbolism.

Ultimately, this week serves as a stage for China to project its increasing influence. Not just its military prowess, but its political authority as well. This includes the power of its alliances, the strength of its economy, and its ability to offer alternatives during a period when America’s actions are becoming increasingly erratic.

The only remaining question is the extent to which the rest of the globe is ready to engage. However, judging from here, it appears a substantial portion is receptive.