CNN’s own data chief is pouring cold water on Democrat dreams of another “blue wave” in the 2026 midterms, warning that the party’s lead in the generic ballot is now less than half of what it was heading into their historic wins in 2006 and 2018.
During a CNN segment on Wednesday, chief data analyst Harry Enten offered a blunt assessment: Democrats currently hold a meager two-point lead — far short of the seven-point edge they enjoyed at this point in 2005 and 2017, the run-ups to their two biggest midterm landslides in a generation.
“Their lead is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years,” Enten told CNN host John Berman. “Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.”
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Enten said the current climate looks more like 2024 — when Republicans held the House and Democrats gained just one seat — than like either of the wave years. He urged Democrats and media pundits to “hold the phone” on assumptions that a backlash against Trump is brewing.
What’s more, the Cook Political Report’s latest seat-by-seat analysis projects a potential Republican net gain of 12 House seats. In contrast, Cook’s July 2017 outlook gave Democrats a projected gain of 33 — and they ended up flipping 41 seats that year.
In raw numbers, the contrast is stark. Democrats picked up 31 House seats in the 2006 midterms under George W. Bush and 41 seats in 2018 under Trump. In 2024, despite running against a media-fueled anti-Trump narrative, Democrats netted just one.
Enten also noted that modern history is not on the side of the president’s party. Only once in the past 50 years — during the post-9/11 2002 midterms — has the president’s party retained control of the House.
In short, despite breathless media hopes for a “blue wave,” even CNN’s data analyst admits the numbers aren’t lining up. Republicans are not just in the game — they’re poised to take back even more ground.