Elise Stefanik Within Striking Distance of Hochul After Governor Endorses Socialist NYC Mayor Candidate

The 2026 race for New York governor is shaping up to be a political earthquake.

A new poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul’s grip on the state slipping as Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik surges. The GrayHouse poll, conducted after Hochul endorsed far-left mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, puts the Democrat incumbent ahead by just 5 points—48% to 43%—within striking distance.

And that lead vanishes entirely once voters are informed about Hochul’s ties to Mamdani. In the “informed ballot” portion of the survey, Stefanik pulls ahead slightly, 46.4% to 45.9%, signaling serious vulnerability for Hochul.

The numbers reveal deeper problems for the governor. Nearly 60% of voters say it’s time for someone new in Albany. Among independents, 47% say Mamdani’s election would make them less likely to vote for a Democrat for governor, while only 9% say it would make them more likely.

Mamdani, a self-described socialist, has built his campaign on tax hikes, rent freezes, and government-run grocery stores—policies that have alarmed moderates across the state. Hochul’s endorsement of him appears to be backfiring.

Elise Stefanik didn’t hold back in her response to the numbers.

“Kathy Hochul is the worst governor in America,” Stefanik said. “She’s deeply unpopular—even in her own party. Her affordability crisis, her crime crisis from failed bail reform, and her sanctuary state policies are putting New Yorkers last.”

Stefanik, a rising GOP star and close Trump ally, hasn’t formally announced a run, but insiders say her candidacy is all but certain. She previously stepped down from a Trump administration nomination to help Republicans hold the House majority, a move that bolstered her standing across the party.

Stefanik’s longtime aide Alex deGrasse called the poll results “devastating” for Hochul.

“This is before Elise has even launched her campaign,” he noted. “There’s a reason Kathy is running scared.”

Hochul, who became governor after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace, underperformed in her only election at the top of the ticket. In 2022, despite double-digit projections, she barely defeated Republican Lee Zeldin.

Now, with her base fractured between traditional Democrats and a rising socialist wing, Hochul appears politically cornered. A voter split in the GrayHouse poll shows Democrats evenly divided—40% identify more with establishment figures like Schumer and Pelosi, while 40% say they align with socialist leaders like Mamdani and AOC.

Further complicating the political calculus, Hochul’s former running mate, Andrew Cuomo, is running as an independent against Mamdani for New York City mayor. Despite endorsing Mamdani, Hochul is so politically radioactive that he has refused to endorse her in return.

Previous surveys showed Stefanik down by double digits, with RealClearPolitics tracking a 25-point gap earlier this year. But the latest poll, conducted between September 20 and 26 with a margin of error of 2.6%, suggests that momentum has shifted dramatically.

If Mamdani wins in New York City, the blowback may be felt all the way to Albany—and Elise Stefanik may be the one to capitalize.