In the recent past, David Shor, a Democrat pollster and strategist, astonishingly stated, based on his research, that the younger generation could be the most conservative one in the last 50 to 60 years. This assertion lacked credible foundation since no existing public data could verify this before or following the elections. National exit polls, which may not be perfect but nonetheless offer substantial long-term data, revealed that Kamala Harris only managed to lead among the 18-to-29-year-olds by 11 points. This figure stands in stark contrast to Joe Biden’s 24-point lead with the same demographic group, based on the 2020 exit polls, and far from suggesting a generation tilting towards the Republican side.
In these exit polls, Harris displayed a slight edge with the younger voters aged 18 to 24 as compared to those aged 25 to 29. Recently, the much-anticipated report from left-leaning data firm Catalist further dispelled the notion that Generation Z is turning primarily towards the right. Contrarily, this generation continues to be the most leftist in the U.S. electorate. This finding hints that the Republican side might already be losing their appeal among this demographic.
According to the Catalist report, Kamala Harris secured only 55 percent of the two-party vote among the 18-to-29-year-olds, declining from Joe Biden’s 61 percent in 2020. This 6-point fall, doubling the overall loss in the Democratic vote share among the entire electorate, is hardly indicative of a drastic rightward shift among the young generation. Despite the fact that the Republicans performed their best in the popular national vote since 2004, and right-leaning tendencies emerged across nearly all sectors of the electorate, it doesn’t imply an extreme right-wing sway.
There were, indeed, signs of declining support for the Democrats across various ethnic groups, including Black voters (4 points), Latino voters (9 points), and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters (4 points). These numbers paint a picture of a challenging national environment for Harris. The decrease in youth support for Democrats was among the most substantial and pivotal in the 2024 cycle, marked by a significant 9-point reduction in 18-to-29-year-old male supporters.
Young Black men’s support for the Democrats fell by 10 points, dropping from 85 percent in 2020 to 75 percent in 2024. However, young Latino men displayed an even more striking shift: while 63 percent voted for Joe Biden in the two-party vote in 2020, a mere 47 percent supported Harris in 2024. The impact of Biden’s failed presidency served as an advantageous backdrop for the Republicans, offering them an opening to appeal to incoming voters who have not yet firmly established their political allegiances.
Biden’s plummeting approval rating, persistently in the 30s and 40s throughout 2023-2024, gave the Republicans a rare prospect to win over young voters disillusioned with the Democratic governance. However, even during this period of intense dissatisfaction with the Democrats, the Republicans made some headway, but failed to clinch the majority of young voters. Traditionally unappealing to young people, the Republicans continued the trend, performing worse with this age group than any other during the midterm and presidential elections since 2002.
In the face of prevailing misconceptions, the reality is that youth radicalism hasn’t consistently translated into reality. By opting for divisive and disruptive political tactics in the early part of Trump’s second term, the GOP may have squandered a key opportunity to decisively engage and attract new voters in the 21st century. The potential to build on the momentum they had gained with this age demographic in 2024 was all but lost.
Contrary to the predominant narrative, recent polls suggest that young people aged 18 to 29 are divided on heated issues like trans women’s involvement in youth sports. As controversial as this topic is, it certainly doesn’t warrant the Democrats’ excessive focus and introspection. Moreover, Democratic concerns over the apparent gender gap in this age group should not trigger a reversal of their stance on key issues such as trans and immigrant rights.
Instead of succumbing to the persistent misleading narrative suggesting a shift to the right in order to engage young voters, the Democrats need to refocus their approach. The glaring incompetence and corrupt practices exhibited during the Trump administration offers them a unique window of opportunity to redefine their image among younger voters. They need to seize this chance to demonstrate their commitment to the progressive causes that resonate with the youth population.