Once again, rumors are intensifying that Kamala Harris may consider a bid for California governor, rather than bothering with another run for president. Surely, this can be seen as a sign of her dwindling national popularity, and efforts to remain relevant. There’s talk that Harris could be the frontrunner in the gubernatorial race, given her previous roles as San Francisco district attorney, state attorney general, U.S. senator, and her current stint as vice president. Yet, these roles only seem to further underline her inability to consolidate national support.
The only hint Harris provided about her political future came from an event in Orange County in April when she ominously said, ‘I’m not going anywhere.” But what her future truly holds, particularly given her waning popularity on the national scene, remains highly ambiguous. Even existing Governor Gavin Newsom expresses doubt about Harris’ potential desire to replace him, pointing out that a robust ‘Why?’ is necessary for such a pursuit.
There seems to be a multitude of reasons why Harris might desire the gubernatorial position, as well as several reasons why it may not be the best move. But it’s clear from her silence, which included dismissing requests for comment on her intentions, that she prefers intrigue and mystery over transparency and accountability.
One possible advantage of running for the governor’s seat, at least from Harris’ perspective, could be the opportunity to escape the hazardous 2028 presidential primaries. Interestingly, Harris still tries to present herself as the future face of the Democratic Party, a claim that sounds rather far-fetched, considering her defeat by President Donald Trump and her association with former President Joe Biden who is now being criticized for his age and physical capability.
Indeed, the 2028 presidential contest is likely to be congested, with a struggling Democratic Party forced to defend its record against Trump’s popular agenda in Washington. That said, there are growing doubts over Harris’s ability to unite the party, which currently is suffering from low approval ratings. The general sentiment is that the Democrats should look elsewhere for leadership, as Harris seems to have squandered her chance.
Harris often describes herself as a ‘proud daughter of California,’ suggesting that she perhaps finds more comfort on the state turf than in the dizzying heights of national politics. Should she run for governor, the expectation would be for her to tackle Trump resistance—a dubious honor that California is known for—along with the state’s rampant homelessness and skyrocketing cost of living.
However, contesting in California would mean facing stiff competition from several key players including the likes of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra. As it stands, it’s unclear if any of these potential rivals would voluntarily step aside for Harris.
However, one cannot ignore the strong possibility of voter backlash. To them, will Harris seem like a returning prodigal daughter or a twice-failed presidential aspirant seeking an easy way out? In Biden’s peculiar case, capturing the presidency after two unsuccessful attempts did occur, but it’s anything but a common occurrence.
One should also take note of California’s unique primary system, which instead of advancing a Democrat and a Republican to the November election, puts all candidates on a single ballot, irrespective of party affiliation. The notorious ‘jungle primary’ can cause many strategic headaches.
Moreover, in this primary scenario, Harris could end up running against a Democrat who would potentially adopt similar criticisms of her as those likely in the 2028 presidential bid. Previous examples include Nixon, who after narrowly losing the 1960 election to then-Sen. John F. Kennedy, was defeated in the 1962 race for California governor. Will Harris whittle away any remaining political capital she may have for a similar misstep?
One must also not forget that a significant proportion of the electorate bear unfavorable views of Harris. Strategically, the fragmented Democratic primary vote could work against her, leaving her without sufficient voters to make a substantial difference. Her high polarization could make statewide victory far from guaranteed.
Returning to California would also mean facing a roster of formidable challenges. A worsening homeless crisis, a looming $12 billion deficit, a pending freeze on health care programs for immigrants, and wildfire threats are just a handful of issues she would have to reckon with.
Furthermore, Harris would have to combat the state’s negative reputation generated by excessive taxation, sky-high fuel costs, and exorbitant utility fees, inflated house prices, and controversial liberal social policies, whether fairly or not. As it seems, stepping into the gubernatorial race may present more pitfalls for Harris than she may initially anticipate.
Although potentially appearing as the safer option, Governorship in California is not without its challenges. Should Harris choose this path, she would likely find herself amidst a myriad of state issues, still left unresolved by her predecessors.
Harris’s past positions have demonstrated a consistent inability to inspire on a national scale. While maneuvering into state politics might shield her from the harsh limelight of a presidential debate stage, it remains to be seen whether Californians will embrace her embattled political persona.
Only time will reveal if Kamala Harris will indeed attempt a run for California Governorship or if she will persist in her star-crossed endeavors at the national level. Regardless, her current ambiguity speaks volumes about her approach to leadership and service.