In the aftermath of the 2012 presidential election, the Republican Party appeared to be headed for a steep decline. Their candidate, Mitt Romney, was met with disdain both from a considerable portion of their own base and from a wider population. What compounded the already dire situation was the charisma and successful campaign strategy of their opponent, President Barack Obama. All of this left the GOP leadership in a state of concern about being on misaligned stances on certain pivotal issues such as immigration.
However, a dramatic pivot occurred with the unforeseen success of Donald Trump in the 2016 elections. Suddenly, the GOP found itself led by a powerful figure, while Obama’s seemingly infallible alliance began to deteriorate. Along with this, the Republicans also started altering some of their policy stances.
With the 2020 elections, even though Trump was defeated by Joe Biden, it was clear that the overall momentum still favored the Republicans. This was demonstrated further in the 2024 elections when the already floundering Democratic Party weakened further under Biden’s unsatisfactory leadership followed by Kamala Harris, and Trump staged an astounding comeback.
A recent report sheds light on this extraordinary journey–from the Republican nightmare in 2012 to their ultimate victory in 2024. Notably, this report isn’t authored from the GOP perspective. It comes from the progressive Democratic data analytics firm Catalist which was surprisingly candid about Democratic losses.
The analysts from Catalist took meticulous measures like going through voter file information, precinct data, polling data, and history to contrive a substantial snapshot of the voting scenario in 2024. Their data segregated and compared voting trends from each of the election years; 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Several significant trends were observed. For example, the Democratic support from black voters, which stood at a high of 96% when Obama was a candidate, slipped to 93% in 2016 when Trump ran for office. This percentage plunged further to 89% in 2020 and landed at a low of 85% in 2024. Among black men, this downfall was even more drastic with only 79% supporting the Democrats.
Moreover, Democratic support among young black voters was even lower, revealing an alarming trend for the party. Similarly, among the Hispanic community, Democratic patronage slid from 70% in 2016 to 63% in 2020, and by 2024 only 54% were in favor of the Democratic Party.
In the Asian demographic, the decline continued. They had shown 74% support for Democrats in 2012, but this number shrunk to 70% in 2016, followed by 65% in 2020 and settling at 61% by 2024. Among young voters in general, Catalist’s data showed a slip from a favorability rating of 61% to a worrying 55% in merely four years between 2020 and 2024.
Sprouting from these demographic statistics, Catalist also studied voting frequencies, dividing voters into categories based on how many of the last four elections they participated in. By their count in 2024, Kamala Harris only managed to secure a large number of votes from Democrats who had voted in all four of the previous elections.
In fact, Harris saw a substantial drop in votes from younger voters, people of color, male voters, and especially infrequent voters. Meanwhile, Trump was very successful in attracting votes from these very same groups.
This analysis, though primarily focused on illustrating the decline of the Democratic Party from 2012 to 2024, simultaneously showcased the Republicans’ gains. The growth of the GOP’s appeal among the groups historically favoring Democrats manifests the Republicans’ trajectory quite profoundly.
In the wake of Romney’s disastrous 2012 defeat, the Republican National Committee orchestrated an ‘autopsy’ to identify the causes and solutions for the debacle. Their endnote suggested an alignment with Democrats on immigration issues, suggesting outreach to minority and marginalized groups.
In an unexpected twist, the Republicans ended up expanding their base by thoroughly ignoring the stated advice, which they achieved under Trump’s unorthodox leadership. He remarkably guided the party to achieve increased voter turnout from black voters, Hispanic voters, Asian voters, young voters, and even voters who were infrequent during elections.
He did so by staunchly rejecting comprehensive immigration reform—contrary to the salvation solution touted by the 2012 GOP leaders. Trump also significantly dismantled other sacred Republican doctrines.
Most crucially, Trump’s assertive leadership cemented his place among Republicans and then at the national level. His leadership skills and power to defy odds sparked a fresh wave of support for the party that contradicted the expectations of many.
While there is no certainty the GOP’s popularity will last beyond Trump’s term, it cannot be denied Trump has spent over a decade shaping the Republican Party in ways previous leaders only dreamed of.