During the recent conflict that lasted for twelve days, it appears that five military installations in Israel were struck directly by Iranian missiles. This revelation, still unseen by the public due to Israel’s enforced military secrecy laws, increases the complexity of the verbal showdown between the feuding parties. Both nations are presently involved in a rhetorical competition, each claiming unambiguous triumph. Unofficial data suggesting this emerged from scholarly researchers in Oregon State University, who specialize in utilizing satellite radar data to identify airstrike damages in conflict regions.
The researchers’ analysis pointed out that six Iranian missiles led to the damage of five clandestine military bases situated across Israel, including an intelligence center, a mass airfield, and a logistics station. Despite the enquiry made on this matter, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) refrained from commenting about the rate of missile interceptions or the extent of damage suffered by their bases. A spokesperson from IDF maintained that throughout this period, all pertinent units continued to function normally.
The impacts on military institutions surface in addition to a recorded 36 other attacks that managed to penetrate Israeli air-defense systems, leaving residential and industrial locations with considerable damage. Incredibly, a mere 28 Israeli lives were lost owing to their sophisticated alert networks and the stoic protocol adherence of the locals to use bomb shelters and safe areas effectively.
According to an analysis, a bulk of the Iranian projectiles were successfully intercepted; however, the number of successful missile attacks gradually increased over the first eight days of conflict. Different theories try to explain this phenomenon, one of which includes a possible shortage of interception missiles, better strategies employed by Iran, and their use of more advanced missiles.
Despite the Iron Dome being synonymous with Israel’s defense systems, it’s primarily designed to offer protection against short-range threats like mortars and it constitutes just a fraction of the nation’s multi-layered air-defense mechanism. Their mid-range defense incorporates the David’s Sling system, designed to shield against drones and missiles having a range of up to 300km. To counter long-range ballistic missiles before they re-enter the earth’s atmosphere, Israel relies on the Arrow system.
During the 12-day long clash, these defense facilities were supplemented by two U.S. ground-based THAAD missile-defense systems and ship-launched interceptors from U.S. naval equipment stationed in the Red Sea. An estimated 36 THAAD interceptors were launched by the U.S. during the conflict. Each missile deployed cost approximately $12 million.
For Israel, a densely populated nation with a headcount of 9.7 million, this breaching of their celebrated missile-defense has inflicted surprise and shock. Authorities were compelled to communicate to the public that the defenses aren’t insurmountable. The aftermath of the conflict has left approximately 15,000 citizens homeless, who are now residing in various hotels around the country.
Within Israel, there is a burgeoning conjecture that military locations might have been attacked. Research associates at Oregon State University mentioned that their unit is compiling a comprehensive evaluation of the missile-mediated destruction in both Israel and Iran. The study will be published in approximately a fortnight. Data used by these researchers to ascertain the damage helps recognize alterations in the constructed environment to detect the blasts. To wholly affirm the hits, they would require either direct reporting on-site or satellite images of the affected military locations.
The collective defense systems of the U.S. and Israel have performed admirably on the whole, but about 16% of missiles had managed to infiltrate these defenses by the seventh day of the conflict. This aligns with an earlier projection made by IDF, where they estimated an 87% success rate of their defense system.
Officials in Iran, along with their state media, are using the footage of missiles overcoming the Israeli air defenses in an effort to persuade the public that they emerged victorious in the war. Iranian news platforms are publishing cartoons lampooning the Iron Dome, while playing revolutionary anthems over videos of missiles striking Israeli cities.
Iranian officials suggested that they were able to bypass Israel’s air defenses by simultaneously deploying missiles and drones to muddle their systems. The combination of swift missiles and slower drones seemed to overwhelm the defense system, dividing their attention. One official from Iran shared the primary objective of firing suicide drones at Israel was to effectively distract their systems, causing confusion even if many drones were intercepted mid-flight.
Experts believe that a significant portion of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal remains intact. Even as per Israeli estimations, only half of Iran’s missile launchers were demolished in the 12-day conflict, ensuring a substantial stockpile of missiles. As per a military official in Israel, Iran had approximately 400 launchers, and Israel was successful in destroying more than half of them.
The same official stated that they believed Iran initially had around 2,000 to 2,500 ballistic missiles at the onset of this conflict. However, they speculate that Iran is swiftly moving towards a mass-production strategy, which could exponentially increase their missile inventory to around 8,000 or even 20,000 missiles in the coming years.