Kamala Harris’ shaky political aspirations seem to permeate the minds of both her backers and critics who all concur that her chances look brighter in a bid for governorship of California than running for the presidency for the third consecutive time. There’s a whole world of difference between running against dozens of serious challengers in a highly unpredictable presidential primary and being a front-runner in the California governor’s race, a contest where no other competitor comes even close in terms of track record. Having worn the hats of a district attorney in San Francisco, state attorney general, U.S. senator, and vice president, her curriculum vitae makes others pale in comparison.
While one may speculate that Harris is set on launching a bid to replace term-bounded Gov. Gavin Newsom, her tenuous positions and lacking clarity suggest otherwise. She quipped to an audience in Orange County in April, “I’ll see you out there. I’m not going anywhere.” However, Newsom himself hypothesized that Harris would lead in a contested primary, if she dares to tread that path. The governor hinted that individuals interested in the position should possess an undying passion and be able to clearly articulate their aspirations.
The uncertainties surrounding Harris’s future have subsequently begotten more questions than answers. Would she dare enter the tumultuous 2028 primaries? Some Democrats are banking their hopes on her to serve as the beacon of the party’s future after she fell short to President Donald Trump in the last elections. However, she’s also inextricably linked to former President Joe Biden, currently under fire by Democrats as discussions about his age and diminishing physical and mental fitness gain traction.
Facing the 2028 presidential contest, any candidate will have to piece together a fractured Democratic Party saddled with low approval ratings and seemingly unable to halt Trump’s agenda in Washington. A pressing question arises: Who among the Democrats is best suited to face off against the MAGA movement and present an image of formidable strength? However, some assert that Harris’s time has run its course.
In an official comment, it was observed that voters are yearning for change. They are seeking authentic outsiders capable of revitalizing a broken political system and challenging an economic landscape that is currently rigged in favor of billionaires against blue-collar workers. This sentiment explains Harris’s defeat and calls for the Democrats to pivot their leadership.
Despite her past failures, aspiring for the governor’s seat in California might be a more plausible choice for Harris. She has called California her home and seems to have sufficient experience in the political arena. Despite these qualifications, one cannot forget California’s numerous issues, from homelessness to exorbitant cost of living, which would now be her responsibility to address. In contrast with the illustrious notion of holding a title, her role would now be to ameliorate these complex societal issues.
The competition to step into the shoes of Newsom is heating up with prospective candidates like former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra. Harris however, with her previous track records of winning multiple elections in California, appears to have the home field advantage. With the primary still over a year away, time will tell if she manages to edge out her rivals.
One is hard-pressed not to question how voters would perceive her entering the gubernatorial race. Would she be welcome as the favored daughter of California, returning home triumphant? Or would she be seen as a perpetual presidential failure seeking solace in a softer race? A track record of consecutive presidential defeats usually does not culminate in capturing the presidency. The example of Biden does exist but is by no means a rule.
Despite the universal appeal presented by the California electorate for Harris, there are no guarantees. With no record demonstrating that Harris could deter candidate opposition significantly, her return might not be a triumphant welcome. There may indeed be a divided Democratic primary vote among several candidates.
California’s primary system presents a unique array of challenges, as opposed to numerous other states. Known as the ‘jungle primary’, this open primary clustering of all candidates, irrespective of party affiliation, on a single ballot and subsequent advancement of the top two vote-getters to the general election is a source of despair for many. One misstep could see a strategic gamble turn sour, as witnessed in last year’s U.S. Senate race.
In 2026, Harris may well find herself facing a Democrat instead of a Republican, a scenario that might leave her facing criticism similar to what she would experience in a 2028 bid. These maneuverings, no doubt, are reminiscent of the political circus witnessed over half a century ago when Nixon, narrowly defeated in the 1960 election by then-Sen. John F. Kennedy, lost the California governor’s race in 1962.
While Harris enjoys considerable popularity among Democrats, there is a significant portion of voters who harbor deeply negative views about her. Available voter gains may prove finite for Harris and the Democratic primary vote could split among several candidates. As such, many opine it is far from sure that she would emerge victorious, given her polarizing aspect.
Should Harris choose to return to California, a formidable list of statewide issues awaits her. The state is plagued by a profuse homeless crisis, manifest in the streets of Los Angeles and other major cities. Newsom recently announced a projected $12 billion state deficit, and suggested an enrollment freeze in a state-funded healthcare program for non-documented immigrants living in California.
Furthermore, California is dealing with a home insurance crisis and is constantly under threat from destructive wildfires. If Harris does decide to head home, she will have a hard time not being charged with her state’s infamous high taxes, fuel prices, utilities, million-dollar homes, and liberal social policies.
All the challenges paint a somewhat grim picture of Harris’s political path should she choose to run for governor, begging the question, why would she want this job? Especially when the situation seems to foreshadow more losses than wins.
One thing is certain, Harris’s political career remains precarious, her moves seem like attempts to make the best out of a no-win situation. Nevertheless, whether she decides to run for California governor or for the presidency one more time, it seems clear that Harris is at a major crossroads in her career.