Kamala Harris: Doomed for Second Run Failure?

William Henry Harrison, the U.S’s ninth president and also a British subject, was the first of the Whig Party to take residence in the White House. His inaugural address goes down in history as the longest ever made, dragging for nearly two hours. However, in contrast to his lengthy speech, his presidency was the shortest, ending abruptly just 31 days into his term, marking him as the first sitting president to pass away in office.

Harrison belongs to the rare breed of politicians who, after losing their initial bid for presidency, succeeded in their subsequent attempt. Before him, this was achieved by Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson whereas Richard Nixon managed to claw back only later. Grover Cleveland and Donald Trump stand alone, having experienced a winning, losing, and winning streak. However, past Harrison’s time, those who experienced a defeat in their first run and dared to try their luck in the successive election met the same ill-fated end.

The twentieth-century history reports Democrat Adlai Stevenson and Republican Thomas Dewey as candidates who dared to run the race twice but succumbed to defeat both times. Henry Clay and William Jennings Bryan, seeming gluttons for punishment, each tried their hand at presidency thrice in succession and thrice, met defeat. Perhaps the electorate doesn’t think too fondly of those who can’t secure a win.

Turning our attention to the recent developments, Kamala Harris announced she won’t be pursuing the governorship in California. This has sparked conjectures that she aims to make a run for the White House once more. However, history and the prevailing popularity of the Democratic Party don’t make Harris’ ambitions seem very plausible.

Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, it seems to be sinking in a popularity crisis, with a net favorability of negative thirty points, almost triple the GOP’s negative eleven points. This unpopularity trail treads back thirty-five years, marking the Democrats’ darkest era yet. The current discontent with Democrats, and by extension with Harris, is a testament of the party’s unsuccessful venture against Trump.

That’s not entirely to say that the discontent is Harris’ fault. Rather, she seems to be caught in the crossfire of party politics. The progressive faction of the party is disgruntled with what they view as a lackluster fight put up by the Democrats. On the other hand, the more centrist group sees their party prioritizing the wrong issues, unnecessarily veering far to the left on cultural discrepancies and identity politics.

Despite the varied perspectives within the party, one thing that unites the Democrats is an overwhelming need for victory. Harris was originally set up to be the nominee in 2024 mainly due to her being the diversity choice. Joe Biden was vocal in his commitment to choosing a woman and later specified an African American running mate, leading to Harris’ standing.

However, Harris’ diversity edge is hardly her problem. Her real failing lies in her inability to enlarge the Democratic coalition’s appeal to voters. For the Democratic Party to regain some vitality, it requires a leader with an ability to sway Trump voters. Unluckily for Harris, she lost the race not due to low turnout from her own party’s supporters but due to her failure to appeal to an evolving electorate.

Her message and delivery were less than gripping, leading one to compare her to the dean of liberal arts at some small college, hardly the image of a discerning candidate. Unfortunately, her passions seemed to be shaped by focus groups’ desires, lacking the authenticity much desired by voters. The only exception to this bland rhetoric was her stance on reproductive rights.

One of her biggest blunders was to accept Joe Biden’s demand for her not to disassociate herself from him. Instead, Harris chose the platform of Stephen Colbert’s ‘The Late Show’ for her first interview post her departure from the office. It seems like an erroneous choice designed to simply placate the ideological leanings of Colbert’s fanbase.

That said, focusing on Colbert’s fixed audience demographic isn’t going to help Democrats win. The target should be broader, more inclusive, encompassing those who might well sway a victory in their favor. If Democrats choose to nominate Harris again for the presidency, her legacy might well be tarnished, reduced to a trivia question.

And that question definitely won’t be, ‘Who was the 48th president of the United States?’ Harris’ record and the current standing of her party doesn’t as much make for a promising presidential run. Instead, it paints a grim picture of her prospects.

Looking at the unfavorable odds, one cannot help but draw parallels between Harris and the past president, William Henry Harrison. Both seemed to be at the mercy of circumstances, trapped in their respective political conundrums. While for Harrison it was his untimely demise, for Harris it’s her party’s unpopularity and her weak voter appeal.

With the Democratic Party’s net favorability plummeting, the future for Harris doesn’t look brilliant. However, if she insists on running for office again, she would do well to rethink her strategies. Else, her presidential bid might become just another failed attempt, adding to the history of aspirants who didn’t succeed in a second run.

Despite the negative speculations, Harris’ next move remains shrouded in mystery. While the conjectures revolve around another attempt for the presidency, the final verdict rests in her own hands. Whether she chooses to brave the storm or wind down her political aspirations remains uncertain. What’s evident though is her need to appeal to an expanding and changing set of voters. Only then can she stand a chance to escape the gloom predicted for her.

The current Democratic discontent, the plummeting popularity, and the diverse voter pool all make for a challenging landscape. As things stand, history doesn’t favor a successive presidential comeback. However, if Harris makes a compelling enough case, she might become an exception. But as of now, her prospects look bleak, casting a shadow over her 2024 nomination.