Kamala Harris Leads Early 2028 Democrat Primary Polling Average

Former Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds the highest national polling average among potential Democratic contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination, according to data compiled by Race to the White House.

The polling average shows Harris at 27.5 percent nationally. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows at 22.7 percent. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York stands at nine percent, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg registers 8.7 percent.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro posts a 4.9 percent average, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker comes in at 3.4 percent.

Several of these figures have been floated in political circles as possible 2028 contenders, though none has formally declared a campaign. Early polling at this stage often reflects name recognition and existing national profiles rather than hardened primary support.

Betting markets paint a slightly different picture. According to Kalshi’s odds, Newsom is currently viewed as the favorite, with a 32 percent chance of securing the Democratic nomination. Ocasio-Cortez follows at nine percent, while Harris, Senator Jon Ossoff, and Shapiro each sit at seven percent.

A separate poll conducted by Focaldata on February 10 among 1,148 respondents showed Harris with 39 percent support. Newsom received 21 percent in that survey, while Ocasio-Cortez earned 10 percent. Buttigieg and Shapiro both registered seven percent.

With the 2028 election cycle still years away, the Democratic field remains fluid, and polling numbers are likely to shift significantly as potential candidates make decisions about entering the race.

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