Navigating the High Stakes of the 2025 MLB Trading Season

Follow the riveting play-by-plays in the 2025 MLB trading season, hosted by The Athletic. A common question on social media, during talk shows, or amidst passionate discussions, revolves around understanding what is required to secure the top-notch player your team is eyeing ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline. The mere thought that a poorly performing Triple A player and a ‘moderate prospect’ would suffice is unrealistic. To have an understanding of the potential worth of players that might be traded, I examine the history of players in the past and their market values.

The analytical approach includes comparing Player X, who has displayed similar consistent performance to Player Y, a player from some years prior. The question to be addressed is, ‘What were the key elements required to acquire Player Y?’ These comparisons are based on the ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) of the players this season up until the All-Star break and their WAR over the previous two seasons. Generally speaking, players with comparably consistent control over the long term are matched.

A case study is Gray’s position in 2017. Around that time, Athletics chose to trade him to Yankees, receiving Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, and Jorge Mateo. Both Kaprielian and Mateo were verified among the Top 100 prospects, while Fowler was emerging to become a Top 100 player the ensuing Spring. This move represented a significant acquisition.

However, the comparison between Gray and Ryan is not a direct correlation. In prior years, Gray’s seasons displayed more promising than Ryan’s, and his remarkable attainment was epitomized in his 2013 playoff introduction where he managed to eclipse Justin Verlander.

When Marte, aged 32, was traded from Miami to Oakland for Jesús Luzardo, he was on track to having his best season in terms of WAR. Similarly, Suárez, now 34, is progressing towards his prime season and a young, skilled pitcher such as Luzardo appears his best possible exchange. For Arizona, this could be the ideal situation.

Looking at their team depth, Twins may attempt a similar approach. Packaging Duran along with a lower-level reliever, to acquire one extraordinary prospect, could be a well-considered strategy. Jax, however, does not quite measure up to Miller’s performance levels.

This season’s first half saw right-handed pitcher Jax contributing 1.4 WAR and 5.3 WAR since the onset of 2023. These figures fall somewhat short of Miller’s 1.9 and 6.1, respectively, when Yankees traded him to Cleveland for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen. Even so, Jax has perhaps performed above popular sports opinion. Therefore, Miller’s acquisition proved substantial.

Peavy, on the other hand, got traded for the second time in a row to World Series champions—from Boston to San Francisco—even though his performance was only equivalent to replacement level. The situation resonates with Zack Gallen who is in a similar phase despite being four years younger than Peavy during the trade. The potential team taking him on is banking on his comeback.

Keller aligns closely with Archer’s performance rather than Quintana’s during his tenure with the White Sox. Archer accounted for 1.8 WAR in the 2018 season and 9.2 WAR for the preceding two and a half seasons, compared to Keller’s 2.6 and 8.1. The financial aspects also play out differently for both: Archer had a remaining contract worth about $27 million for the next three seasons, while Keller is due doubly that amount at $54.5 million—fully guaranteed.

The situation cannot be juxtaposed with Cole Hamels’ trade. Incidentally, Hamels was exchanged from the Rangers during his mid-thirties when his ERA was strictly average. The Cubs received him and traded Eddie Butler—a former Top 100 prospect—in return.

Further discussion into this trade reveals that Alcantara’s additional control years would likely make Hamels’ package unappealing for Miami. Given this, Miami would prefer to retain their pitcher to see if he can regain value over time.

Frazier was indeed experiencing his best season during his 2021 trade (2.8 WAR), yet Lowe has displayed more year-on-year consistency. Similar to Frazier, obtaining Lowe would involve controlling him for an additional year. Therefore, Mariners’ deal for Arozarena—which took them two rising minor-leaguers in Brody Hopkins and Aidan Smith—is likely the minimum expectation for what the Cleveland Grind Machine would want in exchange for Kwan.