Saturday’s main event at UFC 316 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey features an exciting women’s bantamweight championship clash. The duel between Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison is anticipated to kick off at around 11:45 p.m. ET. Examining their records clearly illustrates their prowess in the octagon: Peña’s stands at 13-5-0, while Harrison boasts a record of 18-1-0.
Peña, marking her presence in the women’s bantamweight history, won the championship from Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 back in December 2011, clenching a victory through a second-round submission. Unfortunately, Peña’s reign was not lengthy as she surrendered the title in a rematch at UFC 277 to Nunes. The rematch, held in July 2022, unanimously declared Nunes as the clear winner.
An exciting trilogy was on the cards for Peña against Nunes, scheduled at UFC 289 in June 2023. However, a serious rib injury during training sessions proved to be a setback for Peña, causing her to withdraw. The disappointment was significant, as her fans were eagerly waiting for the completion of this epic showdown.
The so-called ‘Venezuelan Vixen’ did not languish in dismay for too long. After a hiatus stretching beyond two years, she returned to reclaim her championship belt at UFC 307. The match against Raquel Pennington concluded in Peña’s favor as she eked out a split decision victory to secure the title.
Peña’s comeback was remarkable given the series of fights concluding through submission between October 2020 and December 2021, where she posted a record of two wins and one loss. This was followed by back-to-back grueling five-round decisions. Although the rematch resulted in a loss to Nunes, Peña bounced back by snatching a title win against Pennington.
A deep dive into Peña’s record reveals her endurance and tenacity. Out of her last nine matches, five saw her endure until the final bell, demonstrating her ability to go the distance. Peña last savored a knockout or technical knockout victory half a decade ago, back in April 2015.
On the other side of the octagon, Kayla Harrison is ready to eye the championship title, despite being relatively new to the UFC scene. Dominating in her first three matches, she indeed made an impressive entrance. Harrison started her UFC tenure with a second-round submission against Holly Holm, following this up by outclassing Ketlen Vieira via unanimous decision at UFC 307.
Since her unfortunate loss in the 2022 PFL World Championships, Harrison has picked herself up to secure three consecutive wins across varying levels. Age is no barrier at 34 years old; the left-handed Harrison remains a formidable presence in the octagon. The fighter holds a significant strikes landed per minute ratio of 4.87 to 3.25.
However, the odds may not be stacked entirely against Peña. She boasts an impressive takedown accuracy rate of 56.25%, demonstrating her superior abilities when the fight hits the mat. Peña’s outreach advantage of three inches may further enhance her control over her opponent during the match.
Predictions for the fight’s outcome propose odds of Peña +475 and Harrison -700. As for the match’s duration, the expectations hover around 3.5 rounds with over and under stakes set at +100 and -135, respectively. Whether the fight will go the full length is also up for debate, with ‘Yes’ attracting odds of +175 and ‘No’ +250.
Peña’s record shows three submission results within her last five bouts, and additionally, four submission victories in her seven most recent matches dating back to January 2017. Harrison, while less consistent in her record, still managed two submission wins out of her latest five professional fights.
Betting over 3.5 rounds at even odds (+100) holds potential, considering the fighters’ recent bout histories. Both are coming in strong: Harrison riding the wave of her ascendancy, while Peña capitalizes on her recent high-profile fights.
Peña has displayed a tendency to stretch her matches, enduring to the end bell in her last two fights. At the same time, Harrison has demonstrated comparable resilience by fighting to the full distance in three of her previous four professional bouts. Given these stats, there’s a considerable chance that this bout could be a lengthy, strategic clash.
The highly-anticipated encounter at UFC 316 thus promises to be a thrilling spectacle, where these two formidable fighters enter the octagon. It’s a clash of experience versus passion, tenacity versus ambition, and, above all, a determination to prove that they are, indeed, the best.
Will Peña maintain control and continue her legacy, or will Harrison shake up the division by securing the championship? As unpredictable as bouts often prove to be, Saturday’s match certainly holds the potential to be one for the books.