President Xi Prepares for Major Regional Security Summit

In a forthcoming regional security forum in China, President Xi Jinping is readying to host over 20 heads of state. The forum serves as a reflection of unity among the nations of the Global South during the Trump era, and offers sanctions-ridden Russia another opportunity to exercise diplomatic sway. The illustrious list of attendees includes leaders from Central Asia, the Middle East, and regions of Asia including South and Southeast Asia. Slated for August 31 to September 1, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit takes place in the bustling northern port city of Tianjin.

One eagerly anticipated appearance is that of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, making this his premier visit to China after a break of seven years. The two nations are striving to pacify the strain that sprang from the fatal border disputes in 2020. The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, was the last event where Modi, Xi, and Putin were all present, a time when Western leaders distanced themselves from Putin due to the Ukraine conflict.

Over the course of the previous week, Russian embassy officials voiced their hopes for imminent tripartite negotiations involving Russia, China, and India. Established in 2001, the impending SCO summit constitutes the most sizeable gathering seen since its inception, as stated by a high-ranking Chinese foreign ministry official. The authority further acknowledged the crucial role this bloc plays in constituting a fresh paradigm for international affairs.

Commencing as a small consortium of six Eurasian nations, the SCO has evolved to include ten core members and 16 additional dialogue and observer countries. Apart from being a forum for security and counter-terrorism, the bloc has diversified its areas of focus to encompass economic and military collaborations. Notwithstanding these laudable intentions, the SCO’s actual contribution to significant security challenges remains somewhat restricted.

A notable sticking point is enduring discord between pivotal members India and Pakistan. For instance, the SCO’s Defence Ministers’ conference in June failed to declare a mutually agreed statement, as India raised concerns about the omission of a reference to a severe attack on Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir on April 22. This incident laid the groundwork for the most intense bouts of conflict seen between India and Pakistan in a long span.

Nonetheless, there are signs of improving relations between China and India following five years of increased border stress, coupled with the Trump administration’s renewed tariff pressures targeting New Delhi. The changing geopolitics have prompted high hopes for fruitful discussions in the upcoming encounter between Xi and Modi during the SCO summit.

Both countries are expected to execute further minimal moves towards border mitigation, possibly including troop reduction and the unwinding of trade and visa-related restrictions. They are also projected to voyage into uncharted areas of cooperation, such as climate contexts, and other engagement involving government and public interactions.

Despite anticipations set for the summit, substantial policy declarations may not be forthcoming, warn subject matter experts. Nonetheless, they also caution against underestimating the SCO’s appeal to nations in the Global South.

Although the divide between India and Pakistan continues to be a disruptive presence within the SCO, the recent thaw in relations between India and China, coupled with renewed tariff pressures from the Trump administration, have raised hopes for a constructive Xi-Modi dialogue on the sidelines of the summit.

Despite a lack of significant policy revelations anticipated to come out of the summit, experts have cautioned against underestimating the attraction of the bloc to Global South nations.

Not a mere arena for political maneuvering, the SCO has expanded its purview to reach beyond security and counter-terrorism efforts, integrating economic and military cooperation into its objectives.