When historians of the future delve into the trajectory of U.S. foreign affairs, they may likely view major events post-2020 — including the hasty American exit from Afghanistan, the Russian assault on Ukraine and the series of conflicts involving Israel in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran — as parts of a larger narrative of worldwide conflict. If we’re lucky, these events might culminate in scholarly works with titles such as ‘Examining the Empire: The United States and Global Affairs, 2021-2030.’ However, if we aren’t as fortunate, resulting in a devastating war between the United States and China, these unrests in Ukraine and the Middle East might become chapters in accounts of a hypothetical World War III.
While we aren’t currently immersed in such an extensive war, it’s beneficial for Americans to perceive our global position in a broader context. With Russia, Iran, and China forming a revisionist alliance, they challenge the strength of our paramount status. Recognizing this form of conflict as a test of endurance is vital, a protracted journey with many twists, turns, and easy opportunities to rashly interpret the result.
Our emotional responses to these tests have fluctuated over the last several years. In 2001 and early 2002, our hasty retreat from Afghanistan coupled with overpromises to a defenseless Ukraine made the U.S. appear ineffective. This perception persisted until Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, launched an invasion on Ukraine. Unexpected military setbacks for Russia and our success in mobilizing support for Ukraine triggered newfound optimism about the strength of liberal democracy and the stability of American supremacy.
This positive sentiment endured through Ukraine’s failed counter-offensive and the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attacks against Israel. However, it gradually gave way to a resurgence of pessimism. The evidence was there: the strain on American military power; the surprise attacks on our Israeli allies; the Russian recovery; the unattainable task of concurrently defending Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan with our existing resources. All this turmoil was happening under a president whose increasing age symbolized an empire in decay.
This growing perception of simultaneous crises across multiple theaters played a significant role in propelling Donald Trump back into office. Yet, his first few months in power sparked fears of a potential capitulation ending the global conflict — fears that he might abandon our allies, negotiate agreements with autocrats and retreat to a Fortress North America.