The Lone Star State, widely considered a stronghold for conservative ideologies, issued its latest public opinion poll this week. This southern titan has been a supportive bastion for Presidential elections for the Republican party, going back to 1977, ensuring a strong victory for President Donald Trump in 2024 with a 14 point lead. The Democrats, on the contrary, are trying to seize the state’s Senate race as a potential turnover opportunity for the midterms election. They are drawing conclusions based on various poll data hinting at a likely fierce competition.
This move by the Democrats to compete in states where President Trump carried double-digit victories is an aggressive tactic to gain control of the Senate, a body currently held by Republicans with a 53-47 majority. The Democrats are hopeful about their chances in Maine and North Carolina, despite Maine voting against, and North Carolina only narrowly voting for, President Trump. However, they will have to secure surprising victories in other predominantly Republican states such as Iowa, Florida, Ohio, or Texas for a realistic shot at Senate control.
In the second term engagement of President Trump, a Texas Politics Project poll indicates the first instance of the majority of Texans expressing disapproval. Results show that 44% of the surveyed Texans have strong disapproval for Donald Trump, with an additional 7% somewhat disapproving. A stark contrast to the meager 27% of Texans hardcore supporters who express strong approval, with another 17% indicating somewhat approval.
However, these numbers should not overshadow President Trump’s initial popularity during his second term. February saw majority endorsement for Trump among Texans, with 52% expressing satisfaction with his job performance, around two months later, the figure slightly dropped to 47%, with 46% expressing dissatisfaction, as per the data from the Texas Politics Project.
Observing party lines, President Trump can proudly boast unequivocal support among Texas Republicans, with a resounding 87% showering him with laudatory remarks. The small vocal minority who express disapproval are drastically outnumbered by Trump’s loyal supporters, which explains his unshakeable popularity among the Republican voter base.
A more nuanced perspective is revealed when examining Trump’s record on specific issues. On the topic of border security, a cause dear to Texans, Trump maintains a slim advantage, with 51% of Texans approving his handling of the issue. This positive sentiment reaffirms Trump’s commitment to national security matters and his resolute approach.
As far as the economy is concerned, the poll results present a more complex picture. 51% of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction in Trump’s handling of the nation’s economy, with only 39% expressing approval. However, this could be a reminder of the grueling economic challenges any President faces, and the unrealistic expectations sometimes placed on them.
The survey, gathered opinions of 1,331 registered voters in Texas and was conducted from June 6 to June 16, 2025. The margin of error for the survey is set at plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. With this margin, the findings offer a valuable though not infallible snapshot of Texas’ political landscape.
While recent decline in approval numbers for President Trump in Texas do reflect a national trend, it’s crucial to remember that these short-term evaluations don’t necessarily predict the outcome of future races. The latest Gallup poll exhibits similarly challenging numbers for Trump. However, observing the nature of politics, it is well understood that both local and national sentiments can shift dramatically across a political term.
The Gallup polling data, collected between June 2 and June 19, 2025, shows a net approval rating of -17 points for Trump, with 40% approval against 57% disapproval. Despite this, due to a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, exact public sentiment may vary significantly.
Given the current political climate, elections forecasters are not considering Texas a competitive turf for 2026. The Cook Political Report, a trusted source in American elections, forecasts both Senate and gubernatorial races in Texas as Solid Republican. This serves as a reminder of Texas’ well-established conservative base and the uphill battle any non-Republican candidate would face.
However, frequent monitoring of Trump’s approval ratings will continue. As a key indicator, these numbers could provide the first signals of any possible shift in the political landscape in Texas, a state traditionally considered an impenetrable fortress for Republicans.
Despite the recent dip in approval, it’s important to remember that President Trump’s achievements and popularity cannot be ignored or forgotten. His instrumental contributions, decisive leadership, and relentless patriotism are traits admired by a significant proportion of the U.S. electorate.
Moreover, the heavy criticism Trump often receives is largely limited to a small sector of the population. Trump’s decisive measures, immovable will, and unique political strategy are still highly praised and favored by many conservatives, especially in states like Texas, where he remains a significant political figure.
In conclusion, while Trump’s approval ratings have experienced turbulence lately, it shouldn’t overshadow his significant contributions and the unwavering support he still enjoys from a substantial fraction of the American population. As the political dynamics continue to unfold, it will be intriguing to observe how these developments might impact the future scenarios.