The Real Threat to Iran’s Security: Its Own Autocratic Rule
Iran’s most glaring vulnerability was highlighted during the recent conflict with Israel lasting 12 days. The skirmishes culminated in Iran documenting over 600 fatalities and close to 4,800 injuries due to Israeli offensives, while Iranian retaliation resulted in approximately 30 Israeli casualties. The casualty count or the sophistication of the weaponry is not the primary concern in this scenario. Rather, the narratives that suggest the successful penetration of Israeli intelligence into the higher echelons of Iran’s security apparatus are cause for concern.
Perez-Shakdam, for example, gained entry into the inner circle of the regime’s stalwarts. Utilizing her magnetic charm, she managed to win the confidence of the wives of Iran’s top-ranking political and military leaders. Although the veracity of claims about her being a Mossad agent remains uncertain, these circumstances underline a significant vulnerability in the Iranian security infrastructure.
The narrative indicates that Mossad operatives managed to sneak precision-guided munitions into Iran and put up a drone base near Tehran. The launch pads for ballistic missiles and air defenses were targeted, thereby drastically crippling Iran’s capacity to retaliate. Such extensive penetration begs the question: how could Israel have achieved such an unprecedented feat?
Iran’s most critical weakness is not its aging military arsenal or its beleaguered economy. It is the inherent nature of its autocratic rule. The suppression and terror exercised by a government sow the seeds of its downfall. Its citizens transform into potential resources for foreign intelligence, not due to disloyalty but as they aspire for the liberties denied to them by their governance.
The oppressive practices of the system have given rise to deep-seated resentment among the populace, which foreign powers can potentially leverage. Each protester incarcerated, each woman assaulted for forgoing her hijab, each journalist silenced, is not merely an incident of human rights infringement but also denotes a strategic vulnerability.
In a setting where surveillance supersedes trust and loyalty is extracted under duress rather than being voluntarily given, the bedrock of national security is undermined. This scenario does not imply that every Iranian dissatisfied with the ruling system is a possible spy – most remain undeniably loyal to their homeland.
Iran’s film industry offers an illustrative analogy. Despite the constraints imposed by the government, it has consistently produced critically acclaimed, award-winning movies. ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’ metaphorically uses the narrative of a strangler fig to depict the ways in which autocratic power ultimately annihilates the very society it intends to safeguard.
The plot unveils the disintegration of a government judge’s family when they choose to champion the cause of anti-government protesters instead of endorsing the regime. The judge, a symbol of governmental authority, becomes ostracized within his own family. The series of events lead to a heartbreaking climax for the once harmonious family, symbolizing the self-destruction inevitably brought about by authoritarianism.
‘My Favourite Cake’ portrays the deep-seated desire among ordinary urban Iranians for the freedoms they once cherished before the revolution set in. The film’s elderly protagonist represents a generation that nostalgically recalls a different Iran characterized by a freer existence – women were allowed to dance, music was a part of everyday life, and fear was less prevalent.
Her silent defiance against the restraints of the regime is reminiscent of the mindset of countless Iranians harbouring similar recollections and desires. National security entails more than an analysis of military hardware, troop deployments, and tactical capabilities. The confrontation between Iran and Israel underscores a more fundamental facet: the strategic importance of legitimacy.
With a population alienated due to an oppressive rule, Iran’s potential strength remains untapped. A Human Rights Watch report from 2024 reveals that the government persists in executing political dissenters and critics based on insubstantial charges. Severe restrictions have been imposed on rights of assembly and expression, and women and girls are frequently persecuted for not donning the obligatory hijab in public.
This harsh regime has engendered fear and loathing amongst the masses. The conditions force intellectuals and professionals to look for allies abroad. When the country’s youth sees no promising future at home, they may perceive the enemy of their oppressors as potential allies. This is the fate of autocratic regimes: they become so reliant on fear and control, they fail to adapt to changing circumstances.
Their distrust for their citizens obstructs the path for harnessing their talents and loyalty. Their intolerance towards dissent prevents rectification of errors. Freedom is stifled, and this undermines the motivation required for internalizing national security within societal norms.
While Iran’s leadership has missiles, drones, intelligence resources, and revolutionary guards in its arsenal, the actual vulnerability lies deeply embedded in the consciousness of its people. This is an arena where even the most intricate security apparatus is futile. The ruling class’s obsession with control leaves the nation vulnerable to significant security risks. The sacred fig they planted may gradually strangle the nation they claim to protect as the very embodiment of control throttles the existence it swore to secure.