The careers of John McCann and Kevin Faulconer, two notable Republicans, are marred by similar political trails. Despite operating in dominantly democratic territories, they managed to ascend to mayorship, fervently advocating a pro-business scheme while masquerading as political moderates. Unsurprisingly, both tasted defeat in recent county supervisor elections, mainly stemming from their explicit support for the former President Donald Trump.
Lorie Zapf, another figure from the Republican wing, never held a mayoral position and was perhaps more conservative than either McCann or Faulconer. However, her political path was significantly altered due to her outspoken support for Trump, which led to her losing her re-election campaign for the San Diego City Council in 2018.
These instances stir up crucial questions regarding the erosion of a political career due to association with Trump. It raises the likelihood of Trump’s influence coming into play in three prominent local races slated for next year, these being Congress, state Senate, and another supervisor seat. However, predicting the impact of the Trump factor in these races can hardly be straightforward.
While Trump remained a recurrent theme in the political downfall of McCann, Faulconer, and Zapf, it’s important to note that typically, a multitude of factors dictate electoral results. Underlying political demographics provide a significant insight into these outcomes.
Former Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer secured her re-election against Faulconer in the solidly Democratic District 3 last November, while Mayor Paloma Aguirre of Imperial Beach triumphed over McCann in the recent District 1 special election. Despite being a predominantly working-class, Latino and Democratic district, District 1 is generally considered more conservative.
Notably, Trump improved his performance in these districts in the last year compared to the previous one, although he was still significantly outscored. Concurrently, the political tilt of Zapf’s district moved considerably towards the Democrats during her council term.
Republicans, undeterred by these setbacks, have been fervently raising important issues such as the looming budget deficits, enduring homelessness, escalating housing costs, and burdensome gas taxes under the Democratic reign locally and in Sacramento. Nevertheless, the persistent necessity for Republicans to rationalize Trump’s actions and those of the Republican Congressional majorities is becoming increasingly noticeable.
Democratic and labor political strategists will inevitably scrutinize the upcoming races and the accompanying circumstances to evaluate the emphasis they should place on Trump’s influence. The races this time around are predominantly in districts without any substantial, if at all, Democratic registration dominance; this implies a tougher decision on whether to wield the Trump card extensively.
The 40th state Senate District, which Minority Leader Brian Jones, R-Santee will soon vacate due to term limits, is one such race. The district, encompassing parts of North County, East County, and a section of San Diego, sees a nearly equal distribution of Democratic and Republican registration, with a sizeable segment of voters remaining politically unaffiliated.
Republican Supervisor Jim Desmond is also being forced out of his North County District 5 due to term limits. Remarkably, he was re-elected by a significant margin in 2022, disregarding the fact that the district has been gradually edging towards Democratic dominance. Two Republicans, Vista Mayor John Franklin and San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones, have already announced their intention to run.
Trump’s improved performance in California last year was much discussed, as he managed to subdue 10 counties that were previously captured by Biden in 2020. Moreover, Republicans were successful in snatching three seats in the Legislature. However, Trump could only muster around 38 percent of the total vote, trailing over 20 points behind.
On a similar note, the Republicans witnessed the loss of three U.S. House seats in California. As a result, the GOP stands with a mere majority, and considering that 2026 is an off-year election, the party currently holding the White House is widely expected to falter in Congress elections. It’s a political tradition that has seen little divergence over time, adding potential hurdles for the Republicans.