As the US B-2 bombers targeted Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, President Donald Trump extolled the success of the mission and encouraged the Islamic Republic to negotiate peace or prepare for potentially stronger attacks. Trump emphasized the formidable strength and might of the US military, detailing their joint operation with Israel. Both he and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, bid that this assault would ensure the termination of Iran’s nuclear agenda – the certainty of this is, however, in question.
One lasting effect projected from this operation is the likely collapse of the post-second world war global harmony. The bitter experiences of the war and the ensuing cold war paved the way for an international system reliant on a somewhat liberal platform of laws and standards, devised to avert a descent into global skirmishes. Its foundations laid on non-interference, diplomatic approaches, and an adherence to the rule of law, this world order was utopian – it represented a high point of global accord.
Recently, however, this global political vision has suffered severe setbacks. The alliance of the United States with Israel in unleashing attacks on Iran potentially invites rigorous queries about global stability’s future and the consequential course. The order of global politics enabled by the military actions of the Trump administration against Iran’s nuclear scheme marks a significant development.
The activities of Israel in the region, like the obliteration of Gaza, the beheading of Hamas, and hindering Hezbollah’s military prowess, have strengthened Israel’s regional dominance. However, Iran has remained a formidable presence, even when its substitute forces experienced defeat. Iran has often been portrayed as an insidious schemer, manipulating a complicated network of ‘proxy actors’ across the Middle East, each charged with carrying out Tehran’s bidding.
The current reality, however, offers a different perspective. Although Iran’s influence on such groups is undeniable, it isn’t the sinister puppeteer that some claim it to be, nor is it the root cause of the region’s troubles. Instead, Iran finds itself in a precarious situation, grappling with substantial social and economic challenges with persistent popular opposition simmering beneath the surface.
In recent past, diplomatic efforts have demonstrated their effectiveness in easing long-standing and deeply rooted hostilities. This was made evident through the gradual rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia from 2023, which followed the signing of the Abraham accords in 2020. These accords, often considered a significant triumph of Trump’s first tenure, were a series of arrangements between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. Here, the Arab nations acknowledged Israel, and all involved parties signed a declaration of principles focusing on mutual understanding, human dignity, and collaboration.
Now, the looming threat of a full-scale confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the US jeopardizes the stability of not just the region, but the world. This raises serious inquiries about the strategy being adopted here. Whilst Israeli authorities have emphasized the need for strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities to preclude the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons capability, the proportionate response has to be considered.
Iran is a signatory of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (though there have been recent threats to withdraw), and high-ranking officials have repeatedly affirmed that nuclear weaponry does not align with Iran’s strategic plans. However, Israel is not a signatory of this treaty. In fact, they are believed to have somewhere between 75 and 400 nuclear warheads. This lack of transparency, as the nation maintains a resolute policy of nuclear opacity, never officially disclosing the extent of its nuclear capabilities, is a significant point in the ensuing discussion.
Is this the initiation of a new order within the region buttressed by western powers, one where international laws and norms are blatantly disregarded? What impact might this have on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the potential for a Russia emboldened for further hazardous exploits? What does this imply for the potential of China capitalizing on this disarray to realize its long-standing ambition of unifying with Taiwan, even if it necessitates force?
Moreover, do such changes require us to take more seriously Donald Trump’s propositions to annex Greenland or, at an even higher level, Canada? The shape of global politics is undergoing a transformation that is visible to all. The norms that once anchored the so-called liberal international order are disappearing, and nothing is certain anymore.
Though this epoch has witnessed tragedy and suffering on a scale that’s barely conceivable, discarding well-established norms may have consequences that are far graver. The echoes of this grand shift reverberate across the world, and the ramifications are yet to be fully understood. The global narrative is rapidly changing, and the future seems to hold even more uncertainty.
While this reconfiguration of global dynamics unfolds, nations and their leaders will have to make crucial decisions affecting their fate and potentially the world. The international landscape appears more fragile, and navigating these turbulent waters will necessitate unprecedented wisdom and fortitude.
Thus, it is crucial for the international community to pay close attention and remain vigilant in these increasingly uncertain times. Ultimately, the course of global politics and the international order will be shaped not just by the powerful, but by every nation and its people’s collective actions.