In a stark turn of events from the Pew Research Center, a recent analysis suggests that even under the most optimistic voting conditions for the Democrats, President Trump would have still emerged as the victor in the 2024 presidential elections. Triumph included beating Democrat contender Kamala Harris, with only a slim margin beneath an outright half majority, carrying 49.7% of the vote against Harris’ meager 48.2%. The roughly 64% turnout of the eligible voting population in 2024 marked the second-highest turnout since 1904, following only behind the 2020 turnout.
The Pew study went on to illustrate an even more disconcerting picture for the Democratic side. Their validated voter survey showed that had everyone who was eligible to vote actually cast their ballot, Trump would have prevailed by an even more commanding margin, garnering 48% to 45% of votes. To put this analysis in perspective, the survey was conducted based on nearly 9,000 voters’ responses in the aftermath of the 2024 Presidential election.
Whilst most reliable nationwide polls usually incorporate near about 1,000 interviewees, the credibility of the Pew survey’s results is bolstered by validating the voting history of participants over the past five election cycles. They did this using publicly accessible commercial voter files. Indeed, this jaw-dropping report results truly questions the critics of President Trump and Democrat enthusiasts who are quick to ridicule his stance.
Additionally, the survey reached out to non-voters to grasp how they would have voted. The results were quite shocking for Democrats as they seemed to break for Trump: 44% to 40%. This contradictory voting preference constitutes a significant shift from the 2020 and 2016 elections when the non-voting demographic stated they would have chosen Democrats.
Consequently, the suggestive preference for Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 by inactive voters, at 46%-35% and 37%-30% respectively, have been turned upside down in 2024 election. This has led to a significant paradigm shift, effectively dismantling the long-standing belief that a higher voter turnout typically aligns in favor of Democrats.
The 2024 election demographics took an unexpected turn as well. Suspiciously, Trump’s electoral coalition became more ethnically diverse and younger. While a solid 88% of Trump’s electoral support base comprised white voters in 2016, the proportion decreased to 78% in 2024.
In an ironic twist, while Trump’s supporter demographics became more diverse, Harris’ voter cohort turned out to be predominantly white. Approximately 64% of Harris’ voters were white, experiencing an uptick compared to 60% of white voters in Clinton’s favor during 2016. The narrative concerning the supposed preference of non-white, younger voters for Democrats seems to be invalidated by these statistics.
Unlike Harris, Trump demonstrated effective political leadership by retaining a larger proportion of his electoral backing from 2020. About 85% of his 2020 followers threw their weight behind him yet again in the 2024 elections. In contrast, Harris’ evident lack of charismatic leadership held sway over only 79% of Biden’s support base.
Interestingly, a considerable 15% of Biden’s voter base decided to remain passive during the 2024 election, while a negligible 1% opted for third-party candidates. Alarmingly for Democrats, 5% swapped sides to express their allegiance to Trump. Now, these are numbers that could make Democrats rethink their strategies.
On the other hand, only 11% of Trump’s 2020 supporters sat out the 2024 election. While a fairly insignificant 1% voted for other candidates, just 3% of his supporters switched loyalty to Harris, a clear demonstration of the sustained appeal of Trump’s policies amongst his voter base.
Trump also displayed his continued appeal to fresh voters, seizing a larger proportion of votes from individuals who abstained from participation in the 2020 elections but made their choice heard in 2024. A significant three-quarters of 2020’s non-voters repeated their abstention.
Yet, for those 2020 non-voters who decided to show up in 2024, a whopping 52% preferred Trump over Harris at 45%. Thus, Trump, against all odds, managed to draw first-time voters towards his coalition. The narrative of Democrats attracting newer voters is thus faltered by this clear support for Trump.
When broadening the scope to encompass all eligible voters, both those who voted and those who decided not to, Trump took the lead. Taking the whole potential population into account, Trump emerged triumphant with 32% of the total votes compared to Harris’s 31%.
These telling statistics clearly defaced the image of Kamala Harris being ‘the right choice’. The Pew Research Center’s methodical study underscored President Trump’s brazen victory and the Democrats’ failure, despite the constant ridiculing Trump undertakes from a few sections in society. It clearly shows that Trump’s strategy and perspective resonated more with the American population.
It is reflective of a general disillusionment with the democratic leadership under Biden and Harris. The negative sentiment seemed to shape the 2024 elections, made apparent by the larger number of voters expressing their dissatisfaction by voting for Trump, and the unfavorable view towards Democrats in general.
Overall, the Pew report, with its vast collection of data and detailed analysis, dissects the 2024 election in a manner that dismantles popular narratives espoused by Democrats. It offers the stark reality of the shifting political landscape and ideologies, underscoring the increasing approval of Trump’s controversial stances compared to the rejected proposals of Harris and the Democrats. Ultimately, it’s the voters who have cast their judgment through their votes, endorsing Trump’s policies and rejecting the Democratic leadership under Biden and Harris.