California Republicans Build Early Voting Edge As Democrats Struggle To Unite

California Republicans are showing unexpected momentum heading into the state’s June 2 primary election, posting stronger-than-expected early turnout numbers while Democrats remain divided across several major races.

According to ballot return data compiled by Political Data Intelligence, Republicans are outperforming Democrats in early participation rates despite the party’s large statewide registration disadvantage. More than 900,000 ballots have already been returned across California as voters prepare to weigh in on a high-profile gubernatorial contest and several key local races.

As of May 15, Republican turnout statewide stood at roughly 6% of registered voters, compared to just 4% for Democrats. Republicans have also significantly improved their early voting performance compared to the 2022 midterm cycle, with ballot returns reportedly up 11% at this stage.

Democrats still maintain a raw vote advantage overall because of California’s massive registration edge. Of the ballots returned so far, approximately 371,000 came from Democrats while Republicans accounted for nearly 335,000. Another 200,000 ballots were submitted by independent or nonpartisan voters.

The GOP’s strongest performance appears concentrated in several major suburban battlegrounds.

In Orange County, Republicans reportedly hold an early vote advantage exceeding 10,000 ballots. The county has long served as a symbolic political battleground and was once considered a Republican stronghold during the Reagan era.

Republicans are also posting particularly strong numbers in San Diego County, where GOP turnout rates have reportedly nearly doubled Democratic participation despite Democrats maintaining a registration advantage overall.

Even in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Republicans are outperforming Democrats in turnout percentage, with roughly 4% of registered Republicans already voting compared to just 2% of Democrats.

Analysts say much of the current early vote consists heavily of older and highly engaged voters who traditionally participate consistently in every election cycle.

Political Data Intelligence Vice President Paul Mitchell suggested Republicans may be returning to more traditional early-voting behavior after years of skepticism toward mail voting among portions of the GOP base during recent election cycles.

California’s gubernatorial race remains crowded and highly competitive. On the Republican side, voters are choosing between candidates including former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Democrats, meanwhile, remain split among several prominent candidates, including former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire activist Tom Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

California’s “jungle primary” system allows the top two vote-getters to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation, raising the possibility of unusual November matchups depending on how divided the Democratic field remains.