The revered convenience store and gas station conglomerate, Casey’s General Stores, listed under NASDAQ as CASY, is poised to release its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter (end of April) on the 9th of June, 2025. Reports indicate that the financial pundits are projecting an earnings of approximately $1.95 per share on a total revenue of around $3.95 billion.
This projected earnings, it would appear, suggests a descent by 17% in comparison to earnings from the previous year. Additionally, a 10% increment in sales revenues as opposed to previous year’s revenue that stood at $3.60 billion is expected. Data from previous instances hint that the market reaction following the declaration of earnings is usually a dip in the CASY stock value 65% of the time. The median drop ranges around about 2.9% with the most pronounced depletion at 7%.
For further context, during the third quarter, the company exhibited an 11% growth in EBITDA from the same time in the preceding year and projected a similar trajectory for the remaining of the year. Interestingly, the net income experienced little to no change. However, a 15% appreciation could have been observed when written off one-time expenses from their substantial acquisition of Fikes Wholesale and the 198 stores that came with it worth $1.1 billion are discounted.
So, this performance strikingly draws attention to Casey’s steady profitability even while streamlining one of their most substantial acquisitions into their business model. Casey’s General Store currently enjoys a market capitalization landing at $17 billion. The revenue from the past year amounts to $16 billion, while it declares its operating profits at $768 million with a net income of $535 million.
Moving forward, let’s take a look at the trends in the one-day (1D) post-earnings returns. An analysis of the previous five years reveals 20 earnings data points. Among them, 7 have been positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns. Looking at the broader picture, there have been positive 1D returns approximately 35% of the time.
However, this scenario appears to shift significantly when we refine our window to only the last three years instead of the past five. In this case, the occurrence of positive 1D returns actually increases to 50%. The median for positive returns stands at 7.4% as analyzed from the seven instances whereas the median for negative returns is pegged at -2.9% collected from 13 instances of such events.
To continue the analysis, let’s look at the observed returns after 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post earnings announcement. Various return data along with interrelated statistics are summarized in the statistics table below herein.
Formulating a relatively less risky strategy in this regard is indeed possible, albeit the outcomes might not meet expectations if the correlation is weak. The suggested strategy centers around studying the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identifying the pair with prominent correlation, and accordingly make the appropriate trading action.
For instance, in the presence of a robust correlation between 1D and 5D, a trader can opt for a ‘long’ position for the next 5 days assuming that the post-earnings return of 1D is positive. This strategy relies significantly on historical correlation data and market trends.
The correlation data mentioned above is derived from a thorough analysis of both a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. While it might be essentially historical data, it does provide a nuanced perspective into the dynamics of 1D, 5D and 21D trading days in response to earnings announcements.
In closing, it’s critical to remember that while patterns can guide expectations and strategies, the financial markets can be unpredictable, with numerous factors beyond earnings influencing stock price. Consequently, any historical analysis or future projections should be seen as a useful tool among many in driving investment decisions.
Ultimately, the upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter earnings announcement by Casey’s General Stores presents an interesting case for market observers and financial experts. The interplay of past-recorded data, current market conditions, and anticipated trends will determine the possible outcomes in both the short and long term.
Casey’s General Store remains a noteworthy player in the market, and their continuous push for growth and sustainability amidst market uncertainties portrays a robust business model. The impact of their earnings announcement on their stock performance will surely be a subject to closely watch in the coming days.