in NYC, Politics

Elise Stefanik Set To Challenge Hochul For New York Governor

Elise Stefanik Kathy Hochul

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), a close ally of President Donald Trump, is preparing to run for governor of New York, setting the stage for a high-profile challenge to Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul in 2026. According to two sources familiar with her thinking, Stefanik’s campaign launch is not a question of if, but when.

“It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” a source told The Hill, adding that the announcement will come at a time of Stefanik’s choosing.

The move follows Trump’s decision to withdraw Stefanik’s nomination to serve as U.N. ambassador — a strategic call to avoid triggering a special election in her swing district as Trump advances his legislative priorities. That decision appears to have opened the door for a gubernatorial run.

Stefanik currently enjoys strong polling among Republican voters. A recent GrayHouse poll shows her dominating the primary field with 44%, far outpacing Rep. Mike Lawler (7%) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (5%), both of whom Trump endorsed for their current offices last month.

While New York remains a blue state on paper, recent elections suggest it’s far more competitive than in years past. Trump closed the gap in 2024, losing the state by just over 12 points — a sharp improvement from his 23-point deficit in 2020. Hochul barely held off Republican Lee Zeldin in 2022, winning by just six points. With crime, cost of living, and migration at the forefront, Republicans believe the political landscape is shifting in their favor.

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Stefanik, 41, has seen a rapid ascent in GOP leadership since becoming the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014. Her national profile exploded during Trump’s first impeachment, when she became one of his most visible defenders. She later ousted Liz Cheney to become House Republican Conference Chair.

Her potential bid also comes amid growing backlash over the Democratic Party’s sharp leftward turn — particularly in New York City, where radical socialist Zohran Mamdani recently defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani’s victory has alarmed moderates and donors alike, giving Republicans a potent messaging point about the party’s extreme direction.

Mamdani has openly called to defund the police, freeze rents, and replace supermarkets with city-run grocery stores — policies Stefanik and other Republicans have sharply condemned as reckless and dangerous.

Facing a weakened Hochul and a Democratic Party increasingly out of step with suburban and working-class voters, Stefanik’s path to victory may be narrow, but it’s no longer unthinkable. Her run would mark the most serious Republican push for New York’s top job since Zeldin’s near-upset — and a national test case for GOP momentum in blue strongholds.