Feeling forsaken, deceived, abandoned, or headstrong, subsequent actions from the potential second term of Donald Trump’s administration towards Greenland, his comprehensive tariff policies, and a seemingly warm rapport with Moscow have hardened some European leaders’ commitments to lessen their global dependencies. Observing from another part of the world, China has taken unique interest in these developments. The Eastern giant envisions a continent of Europe that is independent from the U.S. and therefore perceives a chance to create a rift within Western alliances.
For the previous few years, the European Union and the United States have presented a united front, instituting sanctions and duties on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as officials in cases of purported human rights abuses. Yet, as the U.S. and Beijing find themselves caught in a potentially enduring trade conflict, China views the 27-member European bloc as a valuable ally in mitigating the impact of Trump’s tariffs and maintaining a robust global standing.
A forthcoming summit in China this July, marking a half-century of relations, may give the first indication of an evolving understanding between these two powerful forces. The financial bonds between the EU and China are substantial: bilateral trade amounts to around 2.3 billion euros ($2.7 billion) every day. China holds the position of the EU’s second largest goods trading partner, following the United States.
Both China and the EU recognize the shared benefit of maintaining stable trade relations for the prosperity of the global economy, and present a united front in certain environmental objectives. Europe, like the U.S., has a significant trade imbalance with China and relies heavily on the country for vital minerals used in the production of car components and household goods.
Europe, already grappling with the implications of this trade imbalance, fears that Trump’s tariffs could lead to an influx of Chinese goods, unsettling markets across the continent. This could in turn enhance Beijing’s bargaining power.
The new European strategy being deployed by Beijing does not anticipate a colossal agreement at the aforementioned summit. However, China may push for the EU to ease tariffs on their electric vehicles, or perhaps seek to renegotiate the bilateral trade agreement known as the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
The objective of these maneuvers is to ensure that Europe remains open to and affluent in consumer goods that may otherwise struggle to reach American shores due to Trump’s tariff plans. Despite current ceasefires in the trade conflicts, Chinese corporations are working to broaden their global influence and decrease their dependence on the U.S.
One of Beijing’s strategies includes strengthening its ties with long-established allies in Europe, such as Hungary and Greece. Meanwhile Europe wrestles with mixed feelings, balancing its economic interests with serious concerns about China’s human rights record, trading behaviours, military preparations, and support for Russia.
Criticisms from Europe concerning China’s human rights situation persist. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine only serves to further distance China from Europe. Regardless of Beijing’s stated neutrality, Europe’s perception paints China as an accomplice in Russia’s conflict.
The EU recently made the decision to halt a high-level economic trade dialogue with China following an absence of meaningful progress in resolving trade disagreements. This came along with movements to limit Chinese involvement in the procurement of medical devices within the EU.
In spite of discord on matters regarding China, some analysts argue that both Brussels and Washington retain weaker positions when interacting with Beijing. This predicament could disadvantage the U.S., as it remains dedicated to overcoming China on the world stage. Achieving this requires assistance and support from their allies and partners.
For the European Union, the underpinning elements of their relationship with China have remained largely static. This status quo can only be maintained if China refrains from concrete steps towards further opening its market, and the EU continues its U.S. leanings.
Such complex, multifaceted relationships require careful navigation. The EU sits in the centre, delicately balancing ties with these two superpowers and delicately approaching the subject of tariffs, trade imbalances and political ideologies.
Meanwhile, China and the U.S. are locked in a chess-like standoff, each looking to checkmate the other. The political, economical and international moves made by each player reverberate globally, affecting not just their direct trading partners but also smaller nations within their spheres of influence.
Through this intricate web of international relations, the EU faces challenges and opportunity alike. As a primary trading partner to both the U.S. and China, the bloc holds considerable influence in the continued development of these relationships.
Amid all this, the spectre of an ongoing trade war lingers on. As each move is made – tariffs implemented, political alliances questioned – the ripples spread worldwide. The hope is that negotiations and mutual cooperation can defuse tensions, leading to a more balanced and prosperous global economy. The EU, China, and the U.S. alike must find their own paths in this complex and ever-changing landscape.