Canada, in its capacity as the G7 host, has decided to focus the meeting’s attention on security, critical minerals, and artificial intelligence, deliberately excluding trade discussions. As international pioneers assemble, chatter about the U.S. trade war that has disrupted the global economy is anticipated to be omnipresent, except in formal discussions. The G7 conference unfolds amidst a period of substantial disruption in international commerce triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff implementations.
Contrary to expectations, the ensemble meetings are not likely to dwell much on the trade quarrels each leader around the table has with President Trump. The crux of activity is projected to occur in informal gatherings alongside the summit, allowing leaders from Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the European Union to make their individual cases to President Trump. These side meetings also present the opportunity to deliberate over novel economic agreements as existing global structures shift.
Cognizant of this, the U.S. exhibits an evident inclination towards engaging in bilateral dialogues. The timing of this summit is critical, coinciding as it does with an escalating global trade dispute. It also takes place just before the deadline of the three-month hiatus on ‘reciprocal tariffs’ announced by President Trump in April.
Interestingly, Canada managed to dodge the reciprocal tariffs of Mr. Trump, although it is still feeling the pinch from tariffs on goods like steel, aluminum, automobiles, and other product categories, which are inconsistent with the regulations of continental free-trade agreements. The U.S., far from easing up, seems to persist in increasing the stress.
In a recent development, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada has been engaged in dialogues with Trump regarding a potential trade and security agreement which might eventually decrease some U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Through a series of recent announcements, including a significant boost in defense expenditure, he seems to be paving the way for an agreement with the U.S. The fate of these negotiations, however, remains uncertain.
While speculation regarding the potential agreements dominates the conversations, the primary G7 conclave is predicted to be somewhat diluted. As the host country, Canada has the privilege to shape the discussion themes and trade tariffs do not feature in these key areas, despite the widespread belief that they are imperative.
Canada’s primary ambition appears to be to circumvent any repetition of past adverse outcomes. Specific declarations, such as backing for Ukraine and advancements in supply chains for critical minerals, may still be expected. The latter topic has gained prominence due to China’s efforts to limit the export of rare earth minerals in its ongoing trade conflict with the U.S.
It has been mutually acknowledged that persuading President Trump of the merits of the multilateral system may prove futile. In addition to the G7 leaders, Canada has extended invitations to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. Their involvement is uniquely significant due to the existence of free trade agreements between their respective nations and the U.S.
For the majority of leaders present, their primary interaction, naturally, will be with President Trump. Freshly-elected heads of states, including Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, will be looking forward to establishing associations with global counterparts.
The anticipation is that new economic and security arrangements among the wealthiest democratic nations might arise due to the U.S. reducing its involvement with international entities and undermining the liberal trading system. This might result in an enlargement of regional trade agreement memberships, such as those of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or the establishment of new bilateral pacts.
However, before the G7 leaders can address the reconfiguration of global economic governance, they first need to navigate the upcoming few days without encountering a serious confrontation.