Greece’s Population Shrinks by 400,000 Over 13 Years

Over the past decade and three years, there has been a steady decrease in the populace of Greece by more than 400,000. The media in Greece delivered this news on Saturday, blaming dwindling birth rates, the steep rise in emigration, and an aging population for this decline.

The Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses, a research institution based at the University of Thessaly, provided the basis for these claims. The predictions made by them suggest a continuation of this downward trend for the foreseeable future. This bleak future is anticipated due to a persistent pattern where the number of deaths in Greece outstrips the number of births, coupled with a constant increment in the elderly population.

The Hellenic Statistical Authority, a government agency responsible for official statistics, affirms this trend. Their census in 2011 recorded a resident population of about 10.8 million. Fast-forwarding to the start of 2024, it is estimated that the resident population fell by more than 400,000 to a number close to 10.4 million.

Data from recent years served as the grounding for this report. Greece registered a mere 72,300 births in the entire year of 2023. Comparison with historical numbers reveals that this figure is approximately half of the average annual birth rates experienced during the 1950s and 1960s.

A look at fertility rates further emphasises this point. The fertility rates noted among women who were born around the 1980 year mark hover around 1.3 to 1.4 children. This figure falls shockingly short of the replacement rate, i.e., the fertility rate needed to stabilize the population.

The elderly, those aged 65 and over, already constitute almost 23 percent of the entire population in Greece. A sobering statistic reveals that the population of these elderly individuals surpasses the population of children by a striking difference of nearly 1 million.

Significantly, the research points to 2011 as the starting point of this trend of reduced population. Greece, at this time, was beginning to feel the full impacts of a financial crisis. This crisis led to a two-pronged exodus involving the repatriation of migrant workers and substantial emigration of younger residents from Greece.

Structural factors within the country, such as a scarcity of job opportunities and housing pressure, have mounted additional hurdles. These barriers have had a discouraging effect on the establishment of families and have added to the emigration numbers.

Looking ahead, the study issues a stern warning for Greece. The country is facing what they term as a ‘double challenge’ with respect to its demographic future. On one hand, the younger population is either leaving or delaying parenthood, both of which contribute further to the demographic decline.