Marco Rubio Nearly Ties JD Vance In New 2028 GOP Poll As Pete Buttigieg Overtakes Gavin Newsom
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged into a virtual tie with Vice President JD Vance in a newly released 2028 Republican presidential primary poll, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has emerged as the early Democratic front-runner.
The new Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday showed Vance receiving 36% support among likely Republican primary voters, narrowly ahead of Rubio at 35%.
The numbers represent a dramatic shift since earlier polling. Vance previously dominated the field with 52% support in Emerson’s August 2025 and February 2026 surveys, while Rubio has skyrocketed from just 9% support last August and 20% earlier this year.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tied for third place with 5% support each.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said. “The potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly.”
The survey found Rubio performing especially well with Republican voters over the age of 50, where he leads Vance 41% to 35%. Vance still maintains an advantage among younger Republican voters under 50, leading Rubio 37% to 26%.
About 15% of Republican voters surveyed remain undecided.
The polling shift comes as President Donald Trump has increasingly floated both Vance and Rubio as possible heirs to the MAGA movement during recent public appearances.
Trump has even referred to a potential Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team.”
On the Democratic side, Buttigieg narrowly overtook California Gov. Gavin Newsom for the lead in the party’s early primary race.
Buttigieg received 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters, up slightly from 16% earlier this year.
Newsom, meanwhile, has seen his standing decline sharply. After leading Emerson’s August 2025 poll with 25%, the California governor now sits at 16%.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed third among Democrats with 11% support.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 10%.
Shapiro gained five percentage points since last August, while Harris slipped slightly by one point.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear rounded out the top tier with 9% support.
Eighteen percent of Democratic voters surveyed said they remain undecided about the 2028 race.