Marco Rubio Outperforms JD Vance Against Harris, AOC and Newsom in Early 2028 Presidential Poll
Secretary of State Marco Rubio performs better than Vice President JD Vance in several hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups, according to a new national poll testing the two leading Republicans against some of the Democratic Party’s most prominent potential contenders.
The Emerson College Polling survey found Rubio beating both former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by five percentage points. Rubio received 48% against Harris’ 43% and posted the same 48%-43% advantage over Ocasio-Cortez.
Vance performed considerably worse against Harris. The former vice president led Vance 49%-45%, producing a nine-point swing in the Republican margin when Rubio was substituted as the GOP candidate.
Vance nevertheless defeated Ocasio-Cortez in his hypothetical contest, receiving 46% compared with the New York congresswoman’s 44%. Rubio’s five-point advantage against Ocasio-Cortez was three points stronger than Vance’s margin.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom proved more difficult for both Republicans. Newsom defeated Vance 49%-44%, while Rubio narrowed the Democratic governor’s advantage to just two points, trailing 48%-46%.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff also led both potential Republican nominees, although Rubio again performed somewhat better. Ossoff defeated Vance 49%-44% and Rubio 47%-44%, reducing the Democrat’s advantage from five points to three.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg produced the strongest and most consistent Democratic performance in the survey. He defeated both Vance and Rubio by identical 49%-44% margins, making him the only Democrat tested who maintained the same five-point advantage regardless of which Republican he faced.
The results provide an extremely early look at a presidential contest that remains more than two years away. Neither party has selected a nominee, and the potential field could change substantially before voters begin casting ballots in the 2028 primaries.
Rubio and Vance have nevertheless emerged as two of the most frequently discussed possibilities for succeeding President Trump. Trump has publicly praised both men and has floated the idea of a future Republican ticket involving the two without formally endorsing either one for the presidency.
Rubio’s stronger general-election numbers could become significant if Republican voters eventually prioritize electability when choosing Trump’s successor. The poll suggests Rubio may currently have greater crossover appeal, particularly against Harris, where his performance was dramatically stronger than Vance’s.
The survey contained less encouraging news for Republicans heading into the much closer 2026 midterm elections. Democrats led Republicans 51%-43% on the generic congressional ballot, while 40% of likely voters approved of Trump’s job performance and 56% disapproved.
The Emerson College survey was conducted Aug. 16-17 among 1,000 likely voters nationwide and carries a credibility interval of approximately three percentage points. With the 2028 election still far away, the numbers represent an early snapshot rather than a prediction, but they show Rubio currently outperforming Vance in several of the most consequential hypothetical matchups.