NJ Republicans Lead in Mail-In Ballot Returns as Ciattarelli Gains Ground in Tightening Governor’s Race

Republicans in New Jersey are returning their mail-in ballots at a faster rate than Democrats in what GOP operatives are calling a promising early sign for gubernatorial contender Jack Ciattarelli, as the race between him and Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill continues to narrow.

As of this week, Republicans have returned 18.61% of their requested mail-in ballots, outpacing the 16.55% return rate among Democrats, according to data analyzed by DecisionDeskHQ’s Michael Pruser. The numbers are particularly striking given the GOP’s historical hesitance toward vote-by-mail — a trend that now appears to be shifting.

“Clearly, it’s encouraging for the Republicans right now,” said veteran GOP pollster Adam Geller, who is working with the Ciattarelli campaign. “You could argue that, in addition to coming around to vote by mail, it could be a measurement of the enthusiasm for the candidate.”

Brent Buchanan, CEO of polling firm Cygnal, pointed to a broader shift in the state’s political mood, driven in part by growing support for President Trump. “Republicans have gotten serious about participating in early voting,” he said. “Pair that with the strong shift statewide toward Trump, and you have a growing recipe for Republican wins up and down the ticket.”

That shift is already showing signs in the numbers. Vice President Kamala Harris carried New Jersey by just 6 points in the 2024 election — the narrowest Democratic margin in the state since 1992. More recently, an Emerson College poll showed Trump polling ahead of outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, a warning sign for Sherrill and her party.

Still, experts caution against reading too much into early ballot returns. “The problem with voting by mail is that you don’t know from one day to the next what you’re going to get,” Geller noted. “Some counties may lag, then flood the system with returns all at once.”

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report echoed that sentiment, suggesting Democrats may simply be slower to return their ballots. However, he acknowledged a growing sense of momentum on the right. “Republicans are clearly energized for change after eight years of Democratic rule,” he said, while adding that the real deciding factor remains New Jersey’s independents.

So far, independent voters — who outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in the state — have returned just 9.32% of their mail-in ballots. According to the Independent Voter Project, as of late August there were 2.16 million independents in New Jersey, compared to 2.39 million Democrats and 1.56 million Republicans.

Early in the race, Sherrill enjoyed a strong lead, with some polls showing her ahead by nearly 10 points. But that edge has steadily eroded. An internal poll conducted by Geller last month showed Ciattarelli with a razor-thin lead. A separate Emerson College survey pegged the race as a dead heat. RealClearPolitics now puts Sherrill ahead by just 3.3 points — down from 8.3 just one month ago.

For context, in 2021, the RCP polling average underestimated Ciattarelli’s performance by about five points. He ultimately lost to Murphy by just three.

The stakes are high, and both campaigns are ramping up ahead of their debate on Wednesday night. With Election Day looming on November 4, all eyes are now on turnout — and for the first time in a long while, New Jersey Republicans believe they’ve got momentum on their side.