On the final day of their three-game face-off, the Philadelphia Phillies (48-35) and Atlanta Braves (38-44) are set to clash. The game will take place at Truist Park at 1:35 p.m. ET. In recent times, the Phillies’ performance has been wanting, with a record of losing 4 games out of their last 5. Just recently, they lost 6-1 to the Braves in Atlanta, where they were considered the underdog with a +153 road odds.
The match witnessed an RBI single from Alec Bohm, the Phillies’ third baseman, during the sixth inning. Unfortunately, this was the only boost for the team throughout the game. Saturday turned out to be a bad day at the ballpark for the Phillies, but a good one for the Atlanta Braves, who managed to end their run of three consecutive losses.
Braves’ winning also resulted in covering their standing as a -167 home favorite. Their catcher, Sean Murphy, was instrumental in their victory, bringing in four runs courtesy of a commendable grand slam during the seventh inning. This move almost secured the win for the Braves.
The upcoming match-up between the Phillies and the Braves will likely continue with Ranger Suarez, the left-handed pitcher for the Phillies, and Spencer Strider, the right-handed pitcher for the Braves. With an impressive track record of a 6-2 win and an ERA of 2.08, Strider is set to make his 11th appearance. He boasts an impressive WHIP of 1.03, BB/9 of 2.2, and K/9 of 8.2 across sixty-five innings.
However, his performance in the past game, a 1-0 loss against the Houston Astros on the road, does raise some concerns. In that game, he pitched 7 2/3 innings with 1 earned run, 4 hits, 2 bases on balls, and 7 strikeouts. In addition, Strider’s performance against the Braves throughout his career is 3-4, with an ERA at 3.71 across 20 of his games where he made the first pitch, 11 of which were starts.
At the same time, Phillies’ Ranger Suarez maintains less favorable figures, showing a 3-5 win-loss with an ERA of 4.07, preparing to make his ninth game’s start. Considering his stats with a 1.14 WHIP, BB/9 of 3.6, and K/9 of 11.4 throughout forty-two innings, this is compelling. His recent performance was an impressive win pitching five innings in a 7-4 road victory against the New York Mets, making 3 earned runs, 2 hits, 4 bases on balls, and 8 strikeouts.
When it comes to head-to-head performance, Suarez has a remarkable career against the Phillies, showing 8-1, with an ERA of 2.05 along with a 0.79 WHIP and a 13.7 K/9 over ten games, with nine of them being starts.
The current odds for the Phillies at Braves game is provided by BetMGM Sportsbook. On the Moneyline, the odds are +118 for the Phillies and -145 for the Braves. This translates into an expectation to win $118 on a $100 bet for the Phillies while you need to bet $145 to gain $100 if the Braves triumph.
In terms of the Run Line/Against the Spread, the odds are leaning slightly towards the Braves with Phillies at +1.5 (-190) and Braves at -1.5 (+155). The Over/Under is set at 8.5 with Over odds at -105 and Under odds at -115.
Making a prediction for the game, it seems like the Braves have a slight upper hand with a speculated ending score of 3-2 to the Braves. As a result, the Moneyline for BRAVES sits at -145.
The Phillies seem to be encountering quite a stumbling block lately, recording 4 losses out of their last 5 games and a mere two runs across those losses. An added disadvantage has been all recent games taking place on the road. On the other hand, the Braves have shown impressive defensive tactics, conceding four or fewer runs in two of their last three games. Also, in four of their last six showdowns with Strider on the field, they have held steady.
The matchup, expected to be intense, is hinting at a potential advantage for the home team, but by a slim margin only. Given these statistics, it’s suggested that betting on ‘Under’ could be the safer choice.
Last 10 games have shown that Phillies hit the Under in seven of their matches and five out of their last six. They are struggling in terms of scoring as well, with one run or less in four of their last five games and a fine defensive performance holding their opponents to two runs or less in five of their previous six games.
Similarly, Braves also hit the Under seven times in ten games, including two out of their last three. They managed to score three runs or less in three out of their last four with a defensive record of conceding four or fewer runs in four out of their last six games. This adds weight to the ‘Under’ betting suggestion and sets the stage for a highly competitive game.